March Madness First Round Analytics Report:
Admittedly, the VSiN March Mania Betting Guide is jampacked with trends from past NCAA tournaments; perhaps one might even consider it “overload.” For those of you who might be overwhelmed and just looking for a quick tip or two (or 100), I present the next in a series of pieces I will be doing over the next few weeks for the tournament. In it, I will be taking all of the trend data that I presented in the Round-by-Round and Conference trend pieces in the guide, plus the top head-to-head series histories, and fitting the information to the specific matchups for the 2025 tournament.
Unfortunately, because of the time crunch associated with the bracket announcement and the whirlwind submitting of data and articles in a 36-hour period, this is logistically impossible for the guide release. This article series solves that problem for VSiN Pro Subscribers. Plus, it will help keep bettors apprised of all the key trends available to the games as we progress deeper in the tourney, so we won’t overlook anything. I use the term “WE,” because I, too, am using this information for my own wagering purposes.
Without further ado, here are the first-round trends qualified for the 2025 matchups. Look for the next piece in the series, the Second Round Analytics Report, on Saturday morning.
From the “Navigating the Tournament Round by Round” article in the guide, here are the trends and qualifying games for the First Round:
Prior Tournament Game Systems
Here are the “prior game reactionary systems” of 60% or better that I found when I studied the subject and how they impact the Thursday and Friday games:
NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #1
· Teams that win in the NCAAs by scoring less than 60 points have gone 46-43 SU and 56-33 ATS (63%) in the follow-up game since 2006
This is an interesting angle in that it could be assumed that this team “survived” a below-average offensive performance in a game and has a second life.
NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #2
· Teams that win in the NCAAs by scoring 88 or more points have gone 57-10 SU and 42-25 ATS (62.7%) in the follow-up game since 2000 when favored by 6 points or more.
Obviously, a big offensive performance can dramatically lift the confidence of a team in a tournament setting. I think this system would be enhanced in short-turnaround games.
NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #3
· Teams that win in upset fashion in the NCAAs by allowing 56 or fewer points have gone 28-28 SU and 38-18 ATS (67.9%) in the follow-up game since 2010.
Just as a big offensive outing can lift a team, so can a huge defensive effort that helped spring an upset. A 50% outright record for a team coming off an outright upset win is tremendous if you think about the chances that they would be an underdog again. These are clearly dangerous and galvanized teams.
NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #4
· Teams that win in the NCAAs but are beaten by 7+ points on the point spread have rebounded nicely in the next game, 30-8 SU and 25-12-1 ATS (67.6%) since 2010.
Judging by the fact that these teams were able to survive underperforming efforts, they are obviously among the stronger teams in the field. There is a reason the term “survive and advance” has accompanied this tournament for many years. Don’t expect a second straight flat effort.
NCAA Tournament Prior Game System #5
· Teams that win in the NCAAs by scoring less than 60 points have gone 48-30 Under the total (61.5%) in the follow-up game since 2017
This is similar to #1 above, and it could be argued that since the team won with a lower-scoring effort in the prior game, they are probably trying to set a similar pace in the follow-up outing.
Overall Trends
• Teams that didn’t make their conference tournament championship game are on a first-round slide of just 44-64-2 ATS (40.7%) versus conference champions, historically good go-against teams. However, they have put together back-to-back winning years, including 7-6 ATS in ’24, so we could be witnessing a shift as teams place less importance on advancing in their league title game as opposed to being ready for the NCAAs.
This trend goes against Oregon -6.5, Georgia +5.5, Clemson -7.5, Michigan State -17.5, Auburn -32.5, Texas A&M -15.5, Maryland -10.5, Texas Tech -15.5, Missouri -6.5, Purdue -8.5, Alabama -23.5, BYU -2.5, Iowa State -15.5, and Kentucky -11.5
• Power conference schools that lost SU and ATS in their conference championship game are 64-18 SU and 46-34-2 ATS (57.5%) in the first round over the last 16 seasons, a sign that the tournament experience they gained was valuable despite the conference championship loss.
This trend favors Arizona -14.5, Tennessee -18.5, and Wisconsin -17.5. Note that conference championship losers Louisville and Creighton face one another
• Oddsmakers have done bettors a favor by signaling first-round upsets, as small first-round favorites of -1 to -3 are just 59-62 SU and 48-69-4 ATS (41%) since ’09. However, this trend has also swung the other way in the last two years, going 11-5 SU and ATS.
As of Wednesday afternoon, this trend went against Louisville -2.5, Michigan -2.5, BYU -2.5, Colorado State -1.5, North Carolina -1.5, and Mississippi State -1
• Of late, mid-level favorites of -3.5 to -7.5 have also struggled, going 41-27 SU but 28-40 ATS (41.2%) since 2016 in the first round.
As of Wednesday afternoon, this trend was going against Clemson -7.5, Texas -7.5, Oregon -6.5, Missouri -6.5, UCLA -5.5, Gonzaga -5.5, Connecticut -5.5, Illinois -5.5, Kansas -4.5, St Marys-CA -4.5, and Marquette -3.5
• Since 2016, first-round double-digit favorites have been very successful, going 94-9 SU and 57-46 ATS (55.3%). This goes entirely against the Cinderella negative that the media and fans seem to crave.
These are the expected double-digit favorites for Thursday and Friday: Auburn -32.5, Duke -30, Florida -28.5, Houston -28.5, Alabama -23.5, Tennessee -18.5, St Johns -18.5, Michigan State -17.5, Wisconsin -17.5, Texas AandM -15.5, Texas Tech -15.5, Iowa State -15.5, Arizona -14.5, Kentucky -11.5, and Maryland -10.5
• On totals in the first round recently, games posted with totals of 149 or higher have trended decisively Under in the last five tourneys, going 21-10 (67.7%).
These are the games with lofty totals that will test this Under trend: Auburn-Alabama St 150.5, Maryland-Grand Canyon 150.5, Gonzaga-Georgia 150.5, Wisconsin-Montana 151.5, Kentucky-Troy 151.5, Michigan St-Bryant 152.5, Florida-Norfolk St 153.5, Purdue-High Point 153.5, Marquette-New Mexico 153.5, North Carolina-Ole Miss 155.5, Illinois-Xavier/Texas 158, Alabama-Robert Morris 166.5, and Arizona-Akron 166.5
By Seeds
• There are some sweet spots when it comes to betting #1 seeds. As huge favorites of -25.5 or more, they are 35-0 SU and 21-14 ATS (60%) since 2001. As favorites of -19 to -25 points, they are just 14-24 ATS (36.8%) since 2009. When favored by 18.5 or less, they are on an 8-1 ATS run.
All four #1s qualify for the first huge line trend and your potential backing: Houston -28.5, Duke -30, Auburn -32.5, Florida -28.5
• #1 seeds have flexed their muscles defensively over the last seven tournaments, going 14-6 Under the total (70%) while holding opponents to 59 PPG.
Consider Under the total in Houston-SIU Edwardsvl 126.5, Duke-American/Mount St. Marys 140.5, Auburn-Alabama St 150.5, Florida-Norfolk State 153.5
• Be wary of laying big numbers with #2 seeds, as they are just 14-24-1 ATS (36.8%) since 2005 when favored by 17 points or more. Those #2’s favored by less than 17 points are on an impressive 22-8-2 ATS (73.3%) run since 2007.
All four #2’s are favored by at least 17.5 points, making them go against teams on this trend: Tennessee -18.5, St John’s -18.5, Michigan State -17.5, Alabama -23.5
• The last 27 #3 seeds to play in first-round games are on an impressive 25-2 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) surge. Of course, one of those outright losses came a year ago when Oakland upended Kentucky.
These are the #3 seeds hoping to continue this angle: Iowa State -15.5, Wisconsin -17.5, Kentucky -11.5, Texas Tech -15.5
• #3 seeds playing to lower than average totals (<140), and perhaps expected to win with defense, have been solid wagers, 42-6 SU and 34-18 ATS (65.4%) in their last 52.
None of the #3-#14 matchups are expected to have totals this low
• #3 seeds playing as single-digit favorites are on a massive Under the total run, 20-7 (74.1%) since 2003, with games producing almost 6.9 PPG below their posted numbers on average.
No 2025 #3 seeds will qualify
• #4 seeds have been somewhat unreliable lately for bettors, going 15-24-1 ATS (38.5%) over the L10 tourney seasons, including 7-15-1 ATS (31.8%) when favored by 8.5 points or more.
Here are the #4 seeds that hope to buck these trends, all favored by at least 8.5 points: Texas A&M -15.5, Maryland -10.5, Purdue -8.5, Arizona -14.5
• Quite the opposite of the #3 seeds, the #4’s have really struggled in lower totaled games of less than 142, going 15-7 SU but 5-17 ATS (22.7%) since 2013.
The Texas A&M-Yale total is at 142.5 as of Wednesday afternoon
• #5 seeds broke a lengthy skid versus the #12’s in 2023 by going 4-0 SU and ATS. They fell back to normal last year by going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. In all, they are 23-34-3 ATS (40.4%) over the last 15 tournaments. These #5s remain extremely vulnerable when playing as 6 point favorites or more lately, 20-9 SU but 9-18-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2009.
These are the #5 seeds in which this trend goes against, with Clemson and Oregon favored by more than 6 points: Clemson -7.5, Oregon -6.5, Michigan -2.5, Memphis 1.5
• Power Conference Schools are 24-19 SU and 13-28-2 ATS (31.7%) as #5 seeds in the first round since 2008, including Wisconsin’s outright loss in 2024. As #12 seeds, they are on a 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) surge.
All four #5 seeds this trend goes against are power conference programs: Clemson -7.5, Oregon -6.5, Michigan -2.5, Memphis 1.5. All of their opponents are mid-majors.
• #5 seeds have also struggled in expectedly lower scoring games with totals of 141 or less recently, 13-27-2 ATS (32.5%) since 2009.
These two #5-#12 games have low enough totals to test this trend: Clemson-McNeese St 134.5, Oregon-Liberty 139.5
• #6 seeds are 28-32 SU and 22-37-1 ATS (37.3%) in their last 60 first round games versus #11s (also 39-19-2 Under – 67.2%)
These are the #6 seeds this trend goes against: Missouri -6.5, BYU -2.5, Ole Miss +1.5, Illinois -5.5. These are the #6-#11 game totals: Missouri-Drake 132.5, BYU-VA Commonwealth 146.5, Ole Miss-North Carolina 155.5, Illinois-Xavier/Texas 158
• In #6-#11 games set with the #6 playing as an underdog or pick ’em, the #6’s are just 5-12 SU and ATS (29.4%) since 2001. This is a classic trap set by oddsmakers, and it happened twice in 2024, with the seeds splitting the games.
#6 Ole Miss is an underdog to North Carolina, making the Rebels a go-against team on this trend
• Mid-major schools playing as #6 seeds have floundered against power conference #11’s, 3-10 SU and ATS (23.1%) in the last 13 tries.
All four #6 seeds are power conference programs for 2025
• Be aware of a total opportunity when #6 seeds are favored by 4 points or more, as Unders are 20-5-1 (80%) in such games since 2009, with games producing just 129.8 PPG on average, with totals of about 138.7.
These two games figure to be Under plays: Missouri-Drake 132.5 and Illinois-Xavier/Texas 158
• Mid-major schools playing as #7 seeds have been a sound wagering choice, 22-9-1 ATS (71%) since ‘04. In the 2024 bracket, #7 Dayton (+1.5) edged Nevada by 3.
This trend would back St Mary’s (CA) -4.5 versus Vanderbilt
• #7 seeds playing in the +3 to -3 line range have proven to be quite profitable over the long haul, 42-21 SU and 39-23-1 ATS (62.9%) since ’03, including 4-0 SU and ATS last year.
All four #7 seeds are favored by 3.5 points or more as of Wednesday, although Marquette -3.5 is closest to qualifying as a play-on team
• #8 seeds went 1-3 SU and ATS in 2024, running their six-year mark to just 8-16 SU and ATS (33.3%).
The four #8 seeds that are play against teams by this angle are Louisville -2.5, Mississippi St -1, Connecticut -5.5, Gonzaga -5.5
• As small favorites of 3-points or less over #9’s, #8 seeds are on a brutal skid of 8-15 SU and 5-17-1 ATS (22.7%)!
The small favorites #8 seeds that are play against teams by this angle are Louisville -2.5 and Mississippi St -1
• Of the last 29 #8-#9 matchups, 19 have gone Over the total (65.5%).
Consider the Over in Louisville-Creighton 144.5, Mississippi St-Baylor 144.5, Connecticut-Oklahoma 147.5, Gonzaga-Georgia 150.5
• Combined, mid-major conference programs playing in the #4-#6 seeds over the last 22 years have gone 30-24 SU but 21-32-1 ATS (39.6%). They have been far more successful against the spread in the lesser pressure #7 and #8 seeds, 35-25-4 ATS (58.3%) in that same time range. #5 Memphis is the only mid-major play against team in the #4-#6 range, while #7 St Mary’s (CA) and #8 Gonzaga represent the West Coast Conference in the #7-#8 play on angle
• Power conference programs have been very dangerous in the #11-#14 seed range, going 30-19 SU and 31-17-1 ATS (64.6%) since 2008. In the 2024 tournament, #11 seeds Oregon and NC State both won their first round games.
#11 North Carolina has already won a First Four game, as will have the winner of the #11 seed Xavier-Texas battle Wednesday night
From the “Handicapping the tournament by conferences” article, here are the conference trends that will be applicable for the First Round games on Thursday and Friday:
ACC
Teams in the field/First matchup
#5 CLEMSON (-7.5 / 134.5) vs. MCNEESE STATE-Southland
#1 DUKE (-30 / 140.5) vs. AMERICAN-Patriot/Mount St. Mary’s-MAAC
#8 LOUISVILLE (-2.5 / 144.5) vs. CREIGHTON-Big East
#11 NORTH CAROLINA (-1.5 / 155.5) vs. OLE MISS-SEC
Trends
– Over the last three NCAA tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 33-15 SU and ATS (68.8%).
This trend favors Clemson -7.5, Duke -30, Louisville -2.5, North Carolina -1.5
– ACC teams are just 32-49-1 ATS (39.5%) as favorites of 5 points or less in the NCAAs since ’98.
This trend goes against Louisville -2.5, North Carolina -1.5
– ACC teams are 34-3 SU but 12-25 ATS (32.4%) in their last 37 as double-digit tourney favorites.
This trend goes against Duke -30
– ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds are 19-11-1 ATS (63.3%) since 2012.
This trend favors North Carolina -1.5
– In 19 most recent NCAA tourney matchups between the ACC and Big East, Over the total is 13-7 (65%).
This trend favors Over the total in Louisville-Creighton 144.5
– Seventeen of the last 24 NCAA tourney matchups between the ACC and SEC have gone Under the total (70.8%). However, both went Over last year.
This trend favors Under the total in North Carolina-Ole Miss 155.5
– Underdogs are on a 13-3-1 ATS (81.3%) surge since 2017 in that same ACC-SEC conference NCAA matchup.
This trend goes against North Carolina -1.5
America East
Teams in the field/First matchup
#15 BRYANT (+17.5 / 152.5) vs. MICHIGAN STATE-Big Ten
Trends
– Vermont’s loss to Duke in 2024 dropped the America East record in the NCAAs to 11-5 ATS (68.8%) since 2011.
This trend favors Bryant +17.5
– America East teams are 16-8-1 Under (66.7%) the total in NCAAs since 2003.
This trend favors Under the total in Bryant-Michigan St 152.5
American Athletic
Teams in the field/First matchup
#5 MEMPHIS (+1.5 / 147.5) vs. COLORADO STATE-Mountain West
Trends
– American Athletic teams are 13-4 Under the total (76.5%) in their last 17 tourney games as underdogs.
This trend favors Under the total in Memphis-Colorado State 147.5
– AAC teams boast a recent NCAA tourney record versus fellow mid-major conference of 8-2 ATS (80%).
This trend favors Memphis +1.5
Atlantic 10
Teams in the field/First matchup
#11 VA COMMONWEALTH (+2.5 / 146.5) vs. BYU-Big 12
Trends
– Atlantic 10 teams have won just four of their last 15 NCAA tourney games, both SU and ATS (26.7%).
This trend goes against VA Commonwealth +2.5
– Favorites are on a 20-6 SU and 17-9 ATS (65.4%) surge in Atlantic 10 NCAA tourney games since 2015.
This trend goes against VA Commonwealth +2.5
Atlantic Sun
Teams in the field/First matchup
#14 LIPSCOMB (+15.5 / 142.5) vs. IOWA STATE-Big 12
Trends
– Atlantic Sun teams are on an 11-5 ATS (68.8%) run in NCAA tourney games since 2013, including 9-4 ATS (69.2%) vs. Power 5 conferences.
This trend favors Lipscomb +15.5
– Atlantic Sun teams are on 12-7 Over (63.2%) the total run in NCAAs.
This trend favors Over the total in Lipscomb-Iowa State 142.5
Big 12
Teams in the field/First matchup
#4 ARIZONA (-14.5 / 166.5) vs. AKRON-Mid-American
#9 BAYLOR (+1 / 144.5) vs. MISSISSIPPI ST-SEC
#6 BYU (-2.5 / 146.5) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH-Atlantic 10
#1 HOUSTON (-28.5 / 126.5) vs. SIU EDWARDSVL-Ohio Valley
#3 IOWA STATE (-15.5 / 142.5) vs. LIPSCOMB-Atlantic Sun
#7 KANSAS (-4.5 / 145.5) vs. ARKANSAS-SEC
#3 TEXAS TECH (-15.5 / 142.5) vs. UNC-WILMINGTON-Coastal Athletic
Trends
– Big 12 teams have been dominant in the First Four/first-round games of the tournament since 2017, going 35-13 SU and 30-18 ATS (62.5%).
This trend favors all Big 12 teams in First Round
– Big 12 teams in the #4-#8 seed ranges are on a slide of 25-35 SU and 22-37 ATS (37.3%) since 2010, popular upset victims.
This trend goes against Arizona -14.5, BYU -2.5, and Kansas -4.5
– Against mid-major teams in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a 22-10 ATS (68.8%) surge.
This trend favors Arizona -14.5, BYU -2.5, Houston -28.5, Iowa State -15.5, and Texas Tech -15.5
– As favorites of 7 points or more in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a current run of 31-2 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%).
This trend favors Arizona -14.5, Houston -28.5, Iowa State -15.5, and Texas Tech -15.5
Big East
Teams in the field/First matchup
#8 CONNECTICUT (-5.5 / 147.5) vs. OKLAHOMA-SEC
#9 CREIGHTON (+2.5 / 144.5) vs. LOUISVILLE-ACC
#7 MARQUETTE (-3.5 / 153.5) vs. NEW MEXICO-Mountain West
#2 ST JOHN’S (-18.5 / 147.5) vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA-Summit
#11 XAVIER (+4.5 / 158) vs. ILLINOIS- Big Ten???
Trends
– Top two seeded (#1s and #2s) from the Big East have validated their positions by going 28-6 SU and 25-9 ATS (73.5%) in the NCAAs since 2016.
This trend favors St John’s -18.5
– The last 46 Big East teams to play as seeds of #7 or worse in the NCAA tourney are just 12-34 SU and 16-30 ATS (34.8%).
This trend goes against Connecticut -5.5, Creighton +2.5, and Marquette -3.5
– Teams from the Big East Conference have been highly reliable double-digit favorites in the NCAAs since 2007, going 44-3 SU and 32-15 ATS (68.1%).
This trend favors St John’s -18.5
– Teams from the Big East in the #8-#9 First Round matchup are just 4-13 SU and 3-14 ATS (17.6%) in the NCAAs since 2005.
This trend goes against Connecticut -5.5 and Creighton +2.5
– Big East teams are on a 10-2 SU and ATS (83.3%) run against Mountain West teams in the tournament.
This trend favors Marquette -3.5
– Favorites are 51-19 ATS (72.9%) in the last 58 Big East NCAA tourney games, including 23-5 ATS (82.1%) the last two years.
This trend favors Connecticut -5.5, Marquette -3.5, and St John’s -18.5, while going against Creighton +2.5 and would-be Xavier +4.5
– In NCAA tourney games between Big East programs and non-major conferences since 2015, favorites are on a 33-11 SU and 32-10 ATS (76.2%) run.
This trend favors Marquette -3.5 and St John’s -18.5
Big Sky
Teams in the field/First matchup
#14 MONTANA (+17.5 / 151.5) vs. WISCONSIN-Big Ten
Trends
– Big Sky teams are just 1-23 SU and 6-18 ATS (25%) in the tournament since 2001, including 3-16 ATS (15.8%) as an underdog of less than 20 points.
These trends go against Montana +17.5
– Big Sky teams have lost 21 straight NCAA tournament games against major conference teams, going 5-16 ATS (23.8%).
This trend goes against Montana +17.5
Big South
Teams in the field/First matchup
#13 HIGH POINT (+8.5 / 153.5) vs. PURDUE-Big Ten
Trends
– Big South teams are 8-4-1 ATS (66.7%) as #16 seeds in the tournament since 2003, 3-8 ATS (27.3%) in all other seeds.
This trend goes against #13 High Point +8.5
– Big South teams are on a 15-6 Under the total (71.4%) tourney surge vs. major conference teams, scoring just 56.6 PPG.
This trend favors Over the total in High Point-Purdue 153.5
Big Ten
Teams in the field/First matchup
#6 ILLINOIS (-5.5 / 158) vs. XAVIER-Big East/TEXAS-SEC
#4 MARYLAND (-10.5 / 150.5) vs. GRAND CANYON-WAC
#5 MICHIGAN (-2.5 / 142.5) vs. CAL SAN DIEGO-Big West
#2 MICHIGAN STATE (-17.5 / 152.5) vs. BRYANT-America East
#5 OREGON (-6.5 / 139.5) vs. LIBERTY-Conference USA
#4 PURDUE (-8.5 / 153.5) vs. HIGH POINT-Big South
#7 UCLA (-5.5 / 143.5) vs. UTAH STATE-Mountain West
#3 WISCONSIN (-17.5 / 151.5) vs. MONTANA-Big Sky
Trends
– Big Ten teams have been vulnerable in the #4 seed of late, 4-13-1 ATS (23.5%) in their last 18 tourney tries.
This trend goes against Maryland -10.5 and Purdue -8.5
– Overall, Big Ten teams and top 6 seeds haven’t meshed well since 2015, as they are 49-33 SU but 35-46-1 ATS (43.2%) in that scenario.
This trend goes against Illinois -4.5, Maryland -10.5, Michigan State -17.5, Michigan -2.5, Oregon -6.5, Purdue -8.5, and Wisconsin -17.5
– Big Ten teams have been relatively strong in the double-digit chalk role in the tournament, 54-5 SU and 34-21-4 ATS (61.8%) since 1998, including 5-0 SU and ATS last year.
This trend favors Maryland -10.5, Michigan State -17.5, and Wisconsin -17.5
– In tourney games with single-digit point spreads versus mid-major conference foes in the NCAAs, Big Ten teams are on an ugly 30-44 ATS (40.5%) skid since 2006.
This trend goes against Michigan -2.5, Oregon -6.5, Purdue -8.5, and UCLA -5.5
Big West
Teams in the field/First matchup
#12 UC SAN DIEGO (+2.5 / 142.5) vs. MICHIGAN-Big Ten
Trends
– Big West teams are just 4-20 SU and 9-14-1 ATS (39.1%) in their last 24 NCAA tournament games.
This trend goes against UC San Diego +2.5
– Big West teams have trended Under on totals in four straight NCAA tourney games.
This trend favors Under in UC San Diego-Michigan 142.5
Coastal Athletic
Teams in the field/First matchup
#14 UNC-WILMINGTON (+15.5 / 142.5) vs. TEXAS TECH-Big 12
Trends
– Colonial Athletic teams used to be among the country’s best in terms of NCAA tournament spread performance. However, they have lost their last five games SU and ATS and are on an 11-game outright losing streak.
This trend goes against UNC-Wilmington +15.5
– Colonial Athletic teams are on a 23-9-2 ATS (71.9%) run as NCAA tourney dogs to major conference teams. Again, they are off four straight losses currently.
This trend favors UNC-Wilmington +15.5
Conference USA
Teams in the field/First matchup
#12 LIBERTY (+6.5 / 139.5) vs. OREGON-Big Ten
Trends
– Take away Florida Atlantic’s 4-1 SU and ATS run in 2023 and its a 6-17 SU and 7-16 ATS (30.4%) NCAA tourney slide for Conference USA teams since 2009.
This trend goes against Liberty +6.5
– Versus power conference schools in the NCAA tournament, Conference USA teams are just 24-39 SU and ATS (38.1%) since ’98, including 9-22 ATS (29%) as dogs of 4.5-points or more.
This trend goes against Liberty +6.5
– Favorites are on a 10-2 SU and ATS (83.3%) run in NCAA tournament games between Conference USA and Big Ten, although North Texas did upend Purdue in 2021.
This trend goes against Liberty +6.5
– Conference USA teams are on a brutal slide of 4-22 SU and 6-20 ATS (23.1%) as an underdog of +2 to +9.5 in the NCAA tournament.
This trend goes against Liberty +6.5
– Double-digit seeded Conference USA teams are on a 6-17 SU and 7-16 ATS (30.4%) slide in the NCAAs.
This trend goes against Liberty +6.5
Horizon
Teams in the field/First matchup
#15 ROBERT MORRIS (+23.5 / 166.5) vs. ALABAMA-SEC
Trends
– Horizon League teams have lost 13 of their last 15 NCAA tourney games while going 7-8 ATS (43.8%). However, they are currently on a 5 game ATS win streak.
This trend favors Robert Morris +23.5
– Horizon League teams are on a 17-8 Under the total (68%) NCAA run.
This trend favors Under the total in Robert Morris-Alabama 166.5
– Line placement has been key in Horizon League NCAA tourney games. As dogs of 8 points or more, they are 1-14 SU and 6-9 ATS (40%) since 2002. In all other games, they are 20-11 SU and 23-8 ATS (74.2%).
This trend goes against Robert Morris +23.5
– In their last 15 NCAA tourney games versus power conference foes, Horizon League teams are 2-15 SU and 7-10 ATS (41.2%) since 2002. Versus other mid-majors, Horizon League teams are on an 8-2 SU and ATS tourney surge.
This trend goes against Robert Morris +23.5
Ivy
Teams in the field/First matchup
#13 YALE (+7.5 / 138.5) vs. TEXAS A&M-SEC
Trends
– Ivy League teams have gone 8-13 SU and 13-8 ATS (61.9%) in their last 21 NCAA tourney games, including Yale a year ago, who upset Auburn to reach the second round.
This trend favors Yale +7.5
– Ivy League teams are on a 20-12 Under the total (62.5%) NCAA run, but they have gone Over in each of their last three tries.
This trend favors Under the total in Yale-Texas A&M 138.5
– As underdogs of 5 points or more in the NCAAs, Ivy League teams are just 5-23 SU and 11-17 ATS (39.3%) since 2000. They are also 19-9 UNDER the total (67.9%) in those games, scoring just 62.1 PPG.
This trend goes against Yale +7.5 but favors Under the total in Yale-Texas A&M 138.5
Metro Atlantic
Teams in the field/First matchup
#16 MOUNT ST MARY’S (+30 / 140.5) vs. DUKE-ACC
Trends
– Metro Atlantic Athletic are now 1-6 SU and ATS (14.3%) in their last seven NCAA tourney tries as a non-double-digit underdog. They are 4-1 ATS (80%) in their last five as a double-digit dog.
This trend would favor Mount St Mary’s in a matchup with Duke
Mid-American
Teams in the field/First matchup
#13 AKRON (+14.5 / 166.5) vs. ARIZONA-Big 12
Trends
– Mid-American Conference teams are 14-7 ATS (66.7%) in their last 21 NCAA tourney games as a #13 seed or worse but 9-11 ATS (45%) in other seeds during that stretch.
This trend favors Akron +14.5
– Mid-American Conference teams are on a run of 11-4 ATS (73.3%) in their last 15 tries as dogs of 6.5 points or more in the NCAA tourney.
This trend favors Akron +14.5
– MAC teams have gone Under the total in their last six NCAA tourney games (100%).
This trend favors Under the total in Akron-Arizona 166.5
Mid-Eastern
Teams in the field/First matchup
#16 NORFOLK STATE (+28.5 / 153.5) vs. FLORIDA-SEC
Trends
– MEAC teams are on a 4-16 SU and 5-15 ATS (25%) slide in the NCAAs.
This trend goes against Norfolk State +28.5
– MEAC teams are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS (18.2%) in their last 11 NCAA tourney games as double-digit dogs.
This trend goes against Norfolk State +28.5
– NCAA Tourney games featuring MEAC teams have trended heavily Under on totals, 18-10 (64.3%) in the last 28.
This trend favors Under the total in Norfolk State-Florida 153.5
Missouri Valley
Teams in the field/First matchup
#11 DRAKE (+6.5 / 132.5) vs. MISSOURI-SEC
Trends
– Missouri Valley Conference teams have gone 20-15 SU and 20-14-1 ATS (58.8%) in the NCAA tournament since 2013 but are currently on a 0-4 SU and ATS skid.
This recent trend goes against Drake +6.5
– MVC teams are on an 18-10-1 ATS (64.3%) NCAA tourney run against power conference schools.
This trend favors Drake +6.5
– Missouri Valley schools are 6-4 SU and 7-1-2 ATS (70%) in their last 10 NCAA tourney contests vs. the SEC.
This trend favors Drake +6.5
– MVC teams are 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) since 2006 as an NCAA tournament underdog of 3 points or more.
This trend favors Drake +6.5
– Underdogs are 20-7-1 ATS (74.1%) since 2013 in MVC NCAA tourney games.
This trend favors Drake +6.5
– Under the total is 15-6 (71.4%) in the last 20 Missouri Valley NCAA tourney games.
This trend favors Under the total in Drake-Missouri 132.5
Mountain West
Teams in the field/First matchup
#12 COLORADO STATE (-1.5 / 147.5) vs. MEMPHIS-American Athletic
#10 NEW MEXICO (+3.5 / 153.5) vs. MARQUETTE-Big East
#10 UTAH STATE (+5.5 / 143.5) vs. UCLA-Big Ten
Trends
– I have documented Mountain West teams’ struggles well in the NCAAs in recent years, as collectively they are just 30-63 SU and 29-61-3 ATS (32.2%) since 2001, including 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS in 2024.
This trend goes against Colorado State -1.5, New Mexico +3.5, and Utah State +5.5
– As tournament underdogs, Mountain West teams are just 11-44 SU and 14-38-3 ATS (26.9%) since 2001.
This trend goes against New Mexico +3.5 and Utah State +5.5
– Mountain West Conference teams have been totally overmatched against major conference programs in the NCAAs since 2000, 13-51 SU and 16-46-2 ATS (25.8%).
This trend goes against New Mexico +3.5 and Utah State +5.5
– As seeds of 8 or worse in the NCAAs, MWC teams are on a brutal 5-37 SU and 7-33-2 ATS (17.5%) since 2003!
This trend goes against Colorado State -1.5, New Mexico +3.5, and Utah State +5.5
– It’s a stretch to find any NCAA tourney trends in which MWC teams are successful, but they do boast a 14-14-1 ATS (50%) mark versus fellow mid-major schools since 2002.
This trend is at least neutral to Colorado State -1.5
Ohio Valley
Teams in the field/First matchup
#16 SIU EDWARDSVILLE (+28.5 / 126.5) vs. HOUSTON-Big 12
Trends
– Ohio Valley Conference teams have gone 1-5 SU and ATS (16.7%) in their last six NCAA tournament games after a 15-6 ATS run prior.
This trend goes against SIUE +28.5
– OVC teams are 8-3 ATS (72.7%) in their last 11 NCAA tourney games when playing as dogs of 9 points or more.
This trend favors SIUE +28.5
– Over the total is 10-3 (76.9%) in the last 13 Ohio Valley NCAA tourney games.
This trend favors Over the total in SIUE-Houston 126.5
Patriot
Teams in the field/First matchup
#16 AMERICAN (+30 / 140.5) vs. DUKE-ACC
Trends
– Patriot League teams are 10-9 ATS (52.6%) in the First Round of the NCAA tournament since 2004, but are 1-4 ATS (20%) in all other games.
This trend slightly favors American +30
– Patriot League teams are 10-6 (62.5%) ATS as double-digit underdogs in the NCAAs since 2000.
This trend favors American +30
– Patriot League teams are 12-8 (60%) ATS vs. power conference foes in the NCAAs since 2000, but 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%) against fellow mid-major teams.
This trend favors American +30
SEC
Teams in the field/First matchup
#2 ALABAMA (-23.5 / 166.5) vs. ROBERT MORRIS-Horizon
#10 ARKANSAS (+4.5 / 145.5) vs. KANSAS-Big 12
#1 AUBURN (-32.5 / 150.5) vs. ALABAMA STATE-SWAC
#1 FLORIDA (-28.5 / 153.5) vs. NORFOLK STATE-Mid-Eastern
#9 GEORGIA (+5.5 / 150.5) vs. GONZAGA-West Coast
#3 KENTUCKY (-11.5 / 151.5) vs. TROY-Sun Belt
#8 MISSISSIPPI STATE (-1 / 144.5) vs. BAYLOR-Big 12
#6 MISSOURI (-6.5 / 132.5) vs. DRAKE-Missouri Valley
#9 OKLAHOMA (+5.5 / 147.5) vs. CONNECTICUT-Big East
#6 OLE MISS (+1.5 / 155.5) vs. NORTH CAROLINA-ACC
#2 TENNESSEE (-18.5 / 133.5) vs. WOFFORD-Southern
#11 TEXAS (+5.5 / 158) vs. ILLINOIS-Big Ten
#4 TEXAS A&M (-15.5 / 142.5) vs. YALE-Ivy League
#10 VANDERBILT (+4.5 / 135.5) vs. ST MARY’S (CA)-West Coast
Trends
– The last five NCAA tournaments have been a struggle for SEC teams, as they are just 44-43 SU and 33-54 ATS (37.9%) since the Friday of the first round in the ’18 tourney. They were a combined 8-8 SU and ATS in 2024. This trend figures to get tested heavily in 2025.
This trend goes against all SEC teams in the 2025 NCAA tournament
– As NCAA favorites of more than 20 points, SEC teams are 11-0 Over the total (100%) since 2001, scoring 86.5 PPG.
This trend favors Over the total in Alabama-Robert Morris 166.5, Auburn-Alabama State 150.5, and Florida-Norfolk State 153.5
– Underdogs are 48-32 ATS (60%) in the last 80 SEC NCAA tourney games overall, but they were just 5-11 ATS last year.
This trend goes against Alabama -23.5, Auburn -32.5, Florida -28.5, Kentucky -11.5, Mississippi St -1, Missouri -6.5, Tennessee -18.5, but favors Arkansas +4.5, Georgia +5.5, Oklahoma +5.5, Ole Miss +1.5, Texas +4.5, Texas AandM -15.5, Vanderbilt +4.5
– As pick em’s or small favorites of 5 points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 45-51 SU and 37-55-4 ATS (40.2%) in the NCAAs since 1999.
This trend goes against Mississippi State -1
– Seeded in the bottom half of the field (#9-#14), SEC teams have struggled to a 10-25 SU and 13-20-2 ATS (39.4%) record since 2007.
This trend goes against Arkansas +4.5, Georgia +5.5, Oklahoma +5.5, Texas +4.5, and Vanderbilt +4.5
– The #4 seed and the SEC haven’t meshed well of late, as they are 18-25 ATS (41.9%) in that spot since ’00 and have gone Under the total at a 30-12-1 (71.4%) rate.
This trend goes against Texas A&M -15.5 and favors Under the total in Texas A&M-Yale 142.5
– SEC teams are on a 3-8 ATS (27.3%) skid versus mid-major teams in the NCAAs and are 7-14 ATS (33.3%) in the last 21.
This trend goes against Alabama -23.5, Auburn -32.5, Florida -28.5, Kentucky -11.5, Missouri -6.5, Tennessee -18.5, Georgia +5.5, Texas A&M -15.5, and Vanderbilt +4.5
Southern
Teams in the field/First matchup
#15 WOFFORD (+18.5 / 133.5) vs. TENNESSEE-SEC
Trends
– Southern Conference teams have trended Under the total in recent NCAAs, 12-4 (75%) in the last 16.
This trend favors Under the total in Wofford-Tennessee 133.5
– Teams from the Southern Conference have covered six straight NCAA first-round games (100% ATS).
This trend favors Wofford +18.5
Southland
Teams in the field/First matchup
#12 MCNEESE STATE (+7.5 / 134.5) vs. CLEMSON-ACC
Trends
– As underdogs of 8.5 points or less (or favored), Southland Conference teams are 8-6-1 ATS (57.1%) in their last 15 NCAA tournament tries, but when a larger underdog than that, they are 0-15 SU and 5-9-1 ATS (35.7%) since 2000.
This trend goes against McNeese State +7.5
– Southland Conference teams are 12-5 Under the total (70.6%) in their last 17 NCAA tournament first-round games.
This trend favors Under the total in McNeese State-Clemson 134.5
Summit
Teams in the field/First matchup
#15 NEBRASKA-OMAHA (+18.5 / 147.5) vs. ST JOHN’S-Big East
Trends
– Overall, Summit League teams are on a 7-4-1 ATS (63.6%) run in NCAA tourney action, and underdogs are 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%) in those games. However, both trends are 0-3 SU and ATS in the last three years.
This trend favors Nebraska-Omaha +18.5
– Summit League teams have been a very competitive First Round NCAA team in recent years, going 2-8 SU but 6-3-1 ATS (66.7%) in the last 10.
This trend favors Nebraska-Omaha +18.5
– Recognized as a high-scoring, up-tempo league, five of the last seven NCAA tourney games featuring a Summit League team went Under the total (71.4%).
This trend favors Under the total in Nebraska-Omaha-St Johns 147.5
Sun Belt
Teams in the field/First matchup
#14 TROY (+11.5 / 151.5) vs. KENTUCKY-SEC
Trends
– Sun Belt teams have gone Under the total in eight of their last nine (88.9%) NCAA tourney games.
This trend favors Under the total in Troy-Kentucky 151.5
– As #14-#16 seeds in the NCAAs, SBC teams are on a 6-11-1 ATS (35.3%) slide since 1999, but as #13 or better, they’ve gone 11-5 ATS (68.8%) in that same span.
This trend goes against Troy +11.5
– As underdogs of 7.5 points or less, Sun Belt teams are on a 3-10 SU and 4-8-1 ATS (33%) slide in the NCAAs, but when +8 or higher, they are 13-5 ATS (72.2%) since 2000.
This trend favors Troy +11.5
– Sun Belt teams seem to take some motivation from playing major conference teams, as they are on an NCAA tourney run of 8-4 ATS (66.7%) versus those foes since 2008.
This trend favors Troy +11.5
– Sun Belt teams are 12-3 Under the total (80%) in NCAA tourney games since ‘13
This trend favors Under the total in Troy-Kentucky 151.5
SWAC
Teams in the field/First matchup
#16 ALABAMA STATE (+32.5 / 150.5) vs. AUBURN-SEC
Trends
– SWAC teams are on a 6-4 ATS (60%) run currently in NCAA tourney games, including three straight wins in First Four games.
This trend favors Alabama State +32.5
– As NCAA tourney dogs of +26 or more, SWAC teams are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS (14.3%) since 2000.
This trend goes against Alabama State +32.5
WAC
Teams in the field/First matchup
#13 GRAND CANYON (+10.5 / 150.5) vs. MARYLAND-Big Ten
Trends
– WAC teams have won just three of their last 25 games in the NCAAs since ’06, going 11-14 ATS. However, they are 6-1 ATS (85.7%) in their last seven, and Grand Canyon did end an 18-game losing skid last year.
This trend favors Grand Canyon +10.5
– Six of the last eight WAC first-round NCAA tourney games have gone Over the total (75%).
This trend favors Over the total in Grand Canyon-Maryland 150.5
West Coast
Teams in the field/First matchup
#8 GONZAGA (-5.5 / 150.5) vs. GEORGIA-SEC
#7 ST MARY’S (CA) (-4.5 / 135.5) vs. VANDERBILT-SEC
Trends
– Going into the 2025 NCAAs, West Coast Conference teams are on a 5-13 ATS (27.8%) tourney skid.
This trend goes against Gonzaga -5.5 and St Mary’s (CA) -4.5
Top Head-to-Head Trends for the First Round
There are only six First Round games with any recent relevancy in terms of head-to-head history:
(749) ARKANSAS at (750) KANSAS
* Underdogs and Under the total are 2-0 ATS in the last two meetings of the Arkansas-Kansas head-to-head series, both neutral locale games
(753) ALABAMA ST at (754) AUBURN
* None of the last four games between Alabama State and Auburn were decided by more than 20 points, all since 2007
(759) WOFFORD at (760) TENNESSEE
* WOFFORD is 2-0 ATS in last two games versus Tennessee
(763) GEORGIA at (764) GONZAGA
* GEORGIA is 3-0 ATS versus Gonzaga since 2006, and Over the total is 3-0 in those games as well
(779) BAYLOR at (780) MISSISSIPPI STATE
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 2-0 ATS in two games versus Tennessee since ‘11
(789) VANDERBILT at (790) ST MARY’S (CA)
* VANDERBILT has gone 3-1 ATS vs. St Mary’s (CA) since 2009
