March Madness Picks – Tuley’s College Basketball Takes for Friday, March 20:
We hope everyone had a successful Thursday of the NCAA Tournament with their bets and brackets. For those seeing this before Thursday’s action is complete, check out my Thursday VSiN “takes” column for those games, as this column is for Friday’s second day of the first round. And, of course, we’ll be back on the website with our “dog or pass” plays for Saturday and Sunday’s second rounds and through the rest of the tourney.
I’m guessing a lot of my readers are assuming I was going to be on Miami (OH) as a big 7.5-point underdog vs. SMU in Wednesday night’s First Four game in Dayton, Ohio. However, my most loyal followers recognize that the RedHawks were in an “anti-swagger” spot after starting the season with a 31-game winning streak before losing in the first round of the Mid-American Conference Tournament. The play in my mind would have been to fade Miami (OH) with SMU, though I would then invoke the “pass” part of “dog or pass.”
This was written before that game was to be played, so we’ll see how that turned out. However, see below for how I feel about the winner of that game on Friday night vs. No. 6 seed Tennessee.
Good luck with Friday’s card.
Akron +8 vs. Texas Tech
Friday, 12:40 p.m. ET
Speaking of the MAC, Akron seized its opportunity at the automatic bid with Miami’s first-round loss and took advantage of it. I don’t have any big-spread dogs like on Thursday, so this is the biggest one I like on Friday, but I like the Zips a lot. This looks like the old-school No. 5 vs. 12 matchups that were so golden as Akron shoots 3’s like a live mid-major Cinderella and has a history of NCAA tournament success. Meanwhile, Texas Tech isn’t the same team without JT Toppin and enters on a three-game losing streak. There’s no shame in losing to fellow NCAA teams TCU, BYU and Iowa State as those are certainly tougher teams than Akron faced all year, but I’ll stick with the hotter team with all the momentum.
Villanova +1.5 vs. Utah State
Friday, 4:10 p.m. ET
This is an 8-9 matchup, so it’s around pick-’em as expected, though oddsmakers opened No. 9 Utah State as a 2-point favorite, though it’s down to a consensus 1.5 in Vegas as of Wednesday afternoon. I don’t like to disrespect the oddsmakers and say “the wrong team is favored” … but the wrong team is favored, though I say that totally tongue-in-cheek. Regardless, even though I was impressed by how Utah State rolled to the Mountain West regular-season and conference tourney titles, but I can’t ignore the MWC’s abysmal record over the years in March Madness (13-26, 33%) the past decade and seeds 6-11 are 10-29-1 ATS the last 20 years. I don’t like to indict a single talented team by the conference they come from, but despite Villanova being down from its glory years, I’m still more likely to trust the program that is trying to get back to the Jay Wright era. If the Aggies were a dog, maybe I would consider them, but I have to fade them as chalk here.
SMU/Miami (OH) winner vs. Tennessee
Friday, 4:25 p.m. ET
We obviously don’t have a spread on this game as of this writing on Wednesday, with SMU and Miami (OH) still to play in their First Four game, but based on power ratings I’ve looked at, it should be around Tennessee minus 6 or 7 (as the kids say) and minus 12 to 14 over Miami (OH). In either case, I would like the dog, as the RedHawks, who I said I wouldn’t back on Wednesday in an anti-swagger spot, but I would like them here if they overcome that. Tennessee hasn’t impressed me when I’ve watched them, except for leading the nation in offensive rebounding. But if they’re not getting those second chances, the Vols are vulnerable. SMU is the more likely opponent here, and needs to return to their earlier form after limping down the stretch in the regular season to barely make it in on the bubble. They can certainly shoot with Tennessee, and need to hit the defensive boards to keep Tennessee from those second chances to stay in the game and at least cover (same goes for Miami (OH)).
Clemson +2 vs Iowa (Under 129)
Friday, 6:50 p.m. ET
The nightcap in the South Regional in Tampa gives us this 8-9 matchup. Again, I’m not seeing Friday’s card having as many upsets (or at least big ones) as Thursday. And again, the No. 9 seed is a short favorite while I like the No. 8 dog. Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz is a stud, but Clemson has the defense (No. 21 in efficiency at kenpom.com) to make Stirtz work for his shots, or defer to his teammates, which would be all the better as he’s mostly a one-man team. This feels like betting an Iowa football team, as these Hawkeyes are No. 357 in Adjusted Tempo, also at kenpom.com, and Clemson plays nearly as methodically at No. 333. So, while I like the Tigers to pull the minor upset, my preferred play is actually the Under even though it’s been set low at 129. Both teams should only score in the low 60s, and it wouldn’t be a shock if they’re only in the 50s. My biggest fear with the Under bet is overtime.
