March Madness Picks – Tuley’s College Basketball Takes for Saturday, March 21:
After two days of wall-to-wall basketball on Thursday and Friday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, the Tuley’s Takes home office is looking forward to the second round (aka the round of 32) on Saturday and Sunday.
This column gives me takes on Saturday’s games between the winners from Thursday. While many predicted another chalky tourney like last year with the transfer portal and NIL deals continuing to change the sport and bring a bigger gap to the haves and have-nots, we’re glad we trusted our “dog or pass” process as we went 3-2 ATS with our official Best Bets posted here on the website (including 2-0 ATS on Saint Louis and McNeese State that we gave our early in the VSiN Betting Guide).
While we’ll take a 3-2 ATS (60%) mark anytime, I was actually disappointing we didn’t fare better here as I went 9-5 ATS (64.3%) on Thursday in the Westgate’s first-round contest (doesn’t include games with winners of the First Four games) and dogs went 10-5-1 ATS (66.7%) with the push on South Florida +4 in an 83-79 to Louisville. Some books closed Louisville -3.5, but I graded it a ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Line of -4 and a push (though our other winner from Thursday’s column was given out when South Florida was +5, so many people had dogs at 11-5 ATS).
Anyway, just like the Thursday winners, we move on to the second round on Saturday. I’ll post my Sunday plays at VSiN.com on Saturday.
Here are my Best Bets to start the round of 32.
Saint Louis +12.5 vs. Michigan
Saturday, 12:10 p.m. ET
I loved Saint Louis coming into the tourney despite losing in the Atlantic-10 semifinals, and they justified our love with a 102-77 rout of No. 8 Georgia, scoring 66 points in the paint and not looking like a mid-major at all against the vaunted SEC. Now they take on No. 1 seed Michigan of the Big Ten, and I can’t pass up the double digits. Senior center Robbie Avila (my favorite nickname is “Cream Abdul-Jabbar” though also partial to “SLU Alcindor” since it uses Saint Louis University’s initials) gives the Billikens the best chance to match up with Michigan, but they also have other double-digit scorers with Dion Brown, Trey Green, Amari McCottry and hot-shooting Kellen Thames at 9.9.
I know the Wolverines are one of the best teams in the country (No. 7 in offensive efficiency – points scored per 100 possessions – at kenpom.com and No. 2 in defensive efficiency), but several times the eye test from watching them this season has me not trusting them, as they seemed to make more than average mental errors. If I were a chalk bettor (which I’m not), I wouldn’t trust them to cover this big of a number (and don’t forget they didn’t cover -30.5 in their 101-80 win over No. 16 in the first round), and I’m gladly taking the points with a dangerous Saint Louis team.
Louisville +4.5 vs. Michigan State
Saturday, 2:45 p.m. ET
I usually subscribe to the “fallen star” theory that teammates will pick up the slack, especially when I feel the line has been overadjusted by oddsmakers or the public steaming the other team. However, in the first round, I loved South Florida’s chances against Louisville, whether Mikel Brown Jr. was going to play or not. He didn’t play, and USF turned into a public play by those fading the short-handed Cardinals. Even though I prefer being contrarian, I made South Florida +5 one of my Best Bets. I won, but I have to admit that Louisville was the right side, and I lucked into the backdoor cover. That brings us to this second-round matchup, and I’m now backing Louisville even though Brown is still going to be in street clothes. The other Cardinals picked up the slack to beat USF and, in fact, are 8-5 overall without Brown.
For the season, both teams are in the Top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, so I truly believe this line should be a lot closer to pick-’em. I also like that 76% of the bets and 86% of the money are on Michigan State at DraftKings, according to our VSiN Betting Splits Page (for those interested, Circa is showing 84% of the bets and 54% of the money on Sparty), so we’re fading that!
Texas +6.5 vs. Gonzaga
Saturday, 7:10 p.m. ET
After beating No. 6 seed BYU 79-71, No. 11 Texas is trying to go from the First Four to the Sweet 16. Since the tournament expanded in 2011 with the First Four “play-in” games, only five teams have pulled off that feat: VCU in 2011 (and even made the Final Four!), LaSalle in 2013, Tennessee in 2014, Syracuse in 2018, and UCLA in 2021 (also made the Final Four). I really think Texas has a great chance to do it even though the Longhorns limped to the postseason with three straight lines, including a first-round tourney loss to Ole Miss that almost sent them to the NIT. But they were able to flip the switch by beating North Carolina State in the First Four and then impressively upset BYU as they’re playing their best at the right time. Now, this is just as much a play against Gonzaga, which is a solid No. 3 seed and won another West Coast Conference title, but everyone knows these Bulldogs aren’t as good as past teams. Again, I believe this line should be closer to pick-’em (especially since I also like Texas on the money line at +200 or higher to pull the outright upset).
