March Madness Picks – Tuley’s College Basketball Takes for the Elite Eight:
We can’t believe in the Tuley’s Takes home office that the Final Four will be set after this weekend.
The Sweet 16 started Thursday, and we split our “takes.” No. 11 seed Texas covered as a 7-point underdog (that’s what we gave out in our column earlier in the week, though the Longhorns closed as 8-point dogs) in a 79-77 loss to No 2 seed Purdue on a tip-in with 0.7 seconds left in regulation. The loss was on the Iowa-Nebraska Under 134 as the game went Over in Iowa’s 77-71 upset as a short 1.5-point dog.
This is being written Friday afternoon before the rest of the Sweet 16, so we’ll give our “takes” on Saturday’s Elite 8 games and will add Sunday’s games early Saturday morning.
#9 Iowa (Under 138.5) vs. #3 Illinois
Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET
It’s impressive that three of the four Saturday teams are from the Big Ten, and this matchup guarantees that the conference will have at least one Final Four team. Despite losing with the Under on Thursday, we cashed with it in Iowa’s first two games, and we’re back on it here. It’s again set low at 138.5, but I like it better than Iowa +7.
Regular readers know that I first looked at this with my “dog or pass” approach, especially with Iowa off back-to-back outright upsets of No. 1 seed Florida and No. 4 Nebraska. It was also tempting to take the points since the first meeting saw Illinois win by just 75-69. The Illini covered that game as the line closed -1.5, but a 6-point margin would cash for the dog here. That game was also in the middle of a three-game losing streak for the Hawkeyes before they went on a six-game winning streak to get back on track. However, Illinois is still the far superior team overall in my mind (and No. 2 in offensive efficiency at kenpom.com vs. Iowa’s No. 20 while also better defensively at No. 21 to Iowa’s No. 32), and I see a blowout as more likely than a shootout.
Both teams play slow (Illinois is No. 286 in Adjusted Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes, while Iowa is No. 361. I also don’t expect Iowa to shoot 43% from 3-point range like Thursday night that led to them pulling away. And we certainly saw Illinois comfortable in a low-scoring game with its 65-55 upset of No. 2 Houston as they are also 2-1 with the Under in the tournament (the Illini’s only Over was after scoring 105 points in the first round vs. No. 14 Penn.
#2 Purdue +6 vs. #1 Arizona
Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET
I will take the Big Ten dog, Purdue, in the nightcap. In a chalky tourney, it’s a little scary to fade No. 1 Arizona. However, we have several reasons that have me not passing on this dog. For starters, even though I successfully faded Purdue with Texas in the Sweet 16, I still respect the Boilermakers’ No. 1 ranking in offensive efficiency, and they certainly got the job done when it counted in pulling out the narrow victory.
Even though we also certainly respect that Arizona is No. 4 on offense and No. 3 on defense (the only team to rank in the Top 5 of both), Purdue should be able to match them score for score and be right in the game until the end. I also like that Purdue doesn’t need to play into Arizona’s defensive strength in the paint and should be fine as long as they don’t shoot only 20% from 3-point territory again, as they did against Texas.
In addition, while Arizona is 2-0-1 ATS in the tournament, the push was in the game that is closest to resembling this matchup, as they beat Utah State 78-66 as 12-point chalk. The Wildcats weren’t able to pull away from the Aggies, and the Boilermakers are better on both ends of the court than Utah State. In the end, I believe oddsmakers also have this spread too high between No. 1 and No. 2 seeds when it should be closer to a field goal
Check back here Saturday for Sunday’s two regional finals.
