March Madness Picks – Tuley’s College Basketball Takes for the National Championship
After having to go through NCAA Tournament March Madness withdrawals in the Tuley’s Takes home office for nearly six full days before the Final Four on Saturday, we were disappointed that it wasn’t worth the wait. We went 0-2 with our posted plays here, with losses on the Illinois-UConn Over 139.5 and Arizona +1.5 vs. Michigan.
The Illinois-UConn was mostly going as expected and on pace to go Over (we luckily cashed Over 64.5 in the first half to cut our losses a little) but then the pace and the scoring slowed down in the second half as UConn pulled away to a 71-62 victory and Illinois stopped contributing enough (too many turnovers and missed layups for the supposed No. 1 offensive efficiency team at kenpom.com). Adding insult to injury was the fact I wrote in my preview that I was tempted toward taking the points with UConn but wasn’t able to pull the trigger as I felt the Over was the better bet.
Of course, that still wasn’t as embarrassing as the Arizona loss as they never were closer than 0-0 and 2-1 before Michigan blew them out of Lucas Oil Stadium and the result was never in doubt as Michigan rolled to a 91-72 rout (and it was not closer than the final score indicates as Michigan was clearly the right side).
However, I’m still excited about getting some of those losses back and finishing March Madness on a winning note in Monday night’s championship game.
#2 UConn (+7) vs. Michigan (Over 144)
Monday, 8:50 p.m. ET
As I alluded to above, I wish I had trusted UConn and coach Dan Hurley’s championship culture (the Huskies have a long blue-blood tradition and are playing in their third title game in four years) like I did when taking them against No. 1 seed Duke in the Elite Eight.
I’m not going to run through all the trends and stats you’ve already read and heard about a ton this weekend, as there are a lot in support on both teams in this title game (and the historical ones are a lot less important, and I know a lot of people are saying this Michigan team is one of the all-time greats).
I’m not going to get into that either, but where I want to keep the focus on is that as great as Michigan is (No. 1 overall at kenpom, No. 1 in defensive efficiency, No. 4 in offensive efficiency and the first team to score 90+ points in five NCAA tourney games with one to go), I still don’t have them as 7 points better than this year’s UConn team that has peaked at the right time and playing even better than its ratings (No. 27 in offensive efficiency and No. 8 in defensive efficiency), especially in back-to-back upsets of Duke and Illinois.
I have this power-rated around Michigan -3 to -4. If it was that low, I would probably pass, but I grabbed one of the last +7.5 in Vegas on Saturday and feel great about it and still feel +7 is the right side.
As for the total, I was bummed that I lost on the Illinois-UConn Over as I went against my normal tendencies or betting dogs or Unders. However, I feel the same again in the title game. The total opened between 144,5 and 145.5 on Saturday night and has been bet down to 144 at nearly all Vegas books as of late Sunday afternoon (BetMGM the lone holdout at 144.5). I have the total at 147, so put me down for the Over again.
With Michigan’s record-setting scoring, the Wolverines are 4-1 with the Over in this tourney (the lone Under was vs. Alabama when the total was set ultra-high at 172.5), and while UConn’s No. 8 defense is playing better, I certainly don’t expect the Huskies to completely shut them down even though I’m hoping they do a little for our point-spread wager.
Let’s call it Michigan 75-72 (with UConn covering) and going Over 144.
