March Madness Picks – Tuley’s College Basketball Takes for the Sweet 16:
The opening weekend of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament was certainly a roller-coaster in the Tuley’s Takes home office (and all over Las Vegas as I bounced all over town with more friends and VSiN readers coming in for March Madness than ever before).
We started 3-2 ATS on Thursday when the dogs were barking, but then the tourney turned extremely chalky as I went 1-4 ATS on Friday and 1-2 ATS on Saturday to drop to 5-8 overall, though at least I had Texas vs. Gonzaga on Saturday night to stop the bleeding.
Fortunately, we carried the momentum from that win to Sunday as we closed the weekend at 2-0-1 ATS (7-8 ATS overall, which is nothing to write home about, but we’ll live with it after how chalky things got and how bad it could have been) with a lucky win on Iowa-Florida Under 145.5 by half a point and an easy win on Alabama +1 in a 90-65 rout of Texas Tech while the push was on Utah State +12 in a 78-66 loss to Arizona. We felt that was a “Bad Push” as we shoulda covered, but again we’re grateful that we didn’t lose as many times over the weekend favorites pulled away in the second half to cover the spread.
For those who like my betting recaps and stats at @ViewFromVegas on Twitter/X, favorites went 39-9 SU and 27-19-2 (58.7%) – after starting 5-10-1 ATS on Thursday, so make that 22-9-1 ATS (71%) over the last three days – with Unders taking a 25-23 lead in totals wagering after dominating 6-2 on both Saturday and Sunday.
But enough looking back (except to see what we learned to use moving forward). Here are my takes for Thursday and Friday’s Sweet 16 games.
Texas +7.5 vs. Purdue
Thursday, 7:10 p.m. ET
In a chalky tourney, No. 11 Texas is the lowest seed remaining and had to win three games in the past week to get here after needing to beat North Carolina State in the First Four play-in game last Tuesday before upsetting No. 6 BYU and then No. 3 Gonzaga. I was on them in both games as they’re playing their best at the right time, and a bonus getting them with points.
Like most favorites, No. 2 seed Purdue has covered in both its wins so far over No. 15 Queens and No. 7 Miami (FL), and I’m glad I passed on Miami after considering them +8 but glad I didn’t as Purdue won 79-69. However, I did see enough with Miami actually leading 40-38 at the half and pulling within 73-69 late that Texas can keep this game close as well. I know this Purdue team is different and certainly talented at No. 1 in offensive efficiency at kenpom.com, but I can’t help thinking of all the past Boilermaker teams that have underachieved.
NCAA all-time assist leader Braden Smith obviously runs the show for Purdue, but he committed a career-high eight turnovers against Miami’s athletic guards and Texas (though only No. 81 in defensive efficiency, but playing much better in the tourney, allowing just 68.3 points per game) has length at guard with 6-8 Dailyn Swain and 6-5 Tramon Mark. Texas is No. 223 in Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) at kenpom, while Purdue is No. 324, so a slow pace and a relatively low-scoring game also helps our cause. I’m not calling for the outright upset here, but we just have to keep within a touchdown, as the saying goes.
Iowa vs. Nebraska (Under 132)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Just like I’m riding Texas again, I’m also on the Under in the Iowa game after going 2-0 in the first two rounds against Clemson and Florida. It feels just like better Iowa football games Under, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? And while the oddsmakers certainly know this, they can only set the totals so low. I should also mention that Nebraska is 2-0 with Unders in the tourney. These Big Ten teams obviously know each other, so that works in our favor, along with the fact Iowa is No. 361 in Adjusted Tempo while Nebraska is No. 231.
As for the regular season, Iowa beat Nebraska 57-52 at home on Feb. 17 as the game was way below the betting total of 139.5. Nebraska won the rematch 84-75 at home as that flew Over 136.5, but note that was in overtime and the teams only combined for 140 in regulation, so still went Over but not by much. With so much on the line here in the Sweet 16, I expect this game to mirror the first meeting much more.
St. John’s +7 vs. Duke
Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET
The silver lining of the chalky opening weekend for yours truly was my +365 future on Duke staying alive. However, the Blue Devils nearly sent me to an early grave with heart palpitations as they trailed No. 16 seed Siena 43-32 at halftime on Thursday before rallying to win by just points as a 28-point favorite and then only leading 38-34 vs. No. 9 TCU on Saturday before pulling away to win by 23 to cover as 12-point chalk.
So, even though we survived, you can see how I’m not as confident in No. 1 Duke as I was heading into the tournament. And the oddsmakers agree as they’re now actually higher to win the title at +450 after winning two games and No. 3 in the futures behind both Arizona and Michigan. They’re now the second choice in title futures at +450, behind Arizona at +340, so I’m a little more inclined to hedge my future bet and think this is a good place to start.
St. John’s is No. 8 in defensive efficiency, so that should help them contain Duke’s No. 7 offense. And while St. John’s offense is just No. 42, if Siena and TCU could keep up with Duke, I see no reason the Johnnies can’t. In addition, I’ve always been high on coach Rick Pitino, especially as an underdog with time to prepare.
Alabama +10 vs. Michigan
Friday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Let’s get back to dancing with who brought us to the Big Dance. Just like Texas and Iowa Unders, Alabama came through for us big time vs. Texas Tech on Saturday. Bama is still without guard Aden Holloway following his arrest on felony drug charges, but as we’ve often written, we subscribe to the “fallen star” theory as teams tend to pick up the slack when losing a top player. That worked again against Tech as the Crimson Tide still brings in the No. 3 offense against Michigan, which is No. 6.
Granted, Alabama doesn’t play as well on defense (ranking No. 60 in defensive efficiency as opposed to Michigan at No. 2), but with this matchup having a Sweet 16-high betting total of 174.5 points, no one is expecting much in the way of defense here. This should be a shootout, and again, we’re not calling for the outright upset, but just for Bama to keep trading baskets throughout and keep this within single digits.
