March Madness Sweet 16 Predictions

A list of best bets from VSiN experts for the Sweet 16 action.

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Note: Lines available at time of publish.

Tim Murray

#1 Houston -4 vs #4 Duke

Despite four starters fouling out vs Texas A&M in the Second Round, Houston found a way to slip past the Aggies, 100-95 in overtime. Duke did not have similar issues. The Blue Devils destroyed James Madison, 93-55. After defeating Wisconsin, the Dukes were a popular play in the Second Round and were bet down to just a 6.5-point underdog. Last year, Duke dominated Oral Roberts in the First Round, 74-51, as a six-point favorite. Similar to James Madison, Oral Roberts was a popular upset pick amongst bettors. In the next round, the Blue Devils were knocked off by a physical Tennessee squad, 65-52. A similar fate is likely this year against another physical team in Houston.

Unlike Duke, Houston does not seem to riding high entering Friday’s night game. The Cougars lost by 27 points in the Big 12 Championship to Iowa St. and after beating Longwood by 40, Houston blew a double-digit lead against Texas A&M and needed overtime to secure a victory. The Aggies proved to be a tricky matchup for Houston. Texas A&M grabbed 26 offensive rebounds in the losing effort. Duke is not afraid to attack the offensive glass but not with the same tenacity as the Aggies. Duke is coming off a tremendous shooting performance against James Madison. The Blue Devils went 14-28 from beyond the arc and G Jared McCain finished 8-11 from three. Houston is holding opponents to just 30% from deep this season. The Cougars veteran backcourt of Jamal Shead and LJ Cryer will make every shot a challenge for the Duke backcourt. 

Neither team plays an up-tempo style which would play more in the hands of the underdog, Duke. However, in the past, the Blue Devils have struggled with physical teams like Houston. Quick whistles could potentially hurt Houston on Friday evening. All in all, the physicality and veteran guard play should lead Houston to a win and cover against Duke. Coming off a close call against Texas A&M, Houston is being a bit overlooked against a Duke team that might have played its best game of the season on Sunday in Brooklyn against James Madison. 

Sweet 16 Best Bet: Houston -4

Matt Youmans

See Matt’s top Sweet 16 picks here.

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