NCAA March Madness: Best Final Four value bets

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Our VSiN staff sizes up the NCAA Tournament bracket to search for opportunities in the futures market.

 

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Kansas State 75-1 to win the national championship

Adam Burke: The Wildcats got a pretty decent draw in the bottom of the East Region and it could get really interesting if they emerge from that part of the bracket. They should handle Montana State and then I think they’re a more consistent and possibly safer bet than Kentucky. They’d be a nice-sized favorite over Providence. Marquette is an elite offensive team with a good defense, but Kansas State has seen those all season long.

At the top of the bracket, you have some coaches that have failed under the bright lights like Rick Barnes at Tennessee and Matt Painter at Purdue. I wouldn’t be surprised if either FAU or Memphis beats Purdue in Round 2. I think Kansas State is very live against any potential Elite Eight opponent if the Wildcats can get there, and any team that comes out of the South Region feels vulnerable. I’m not sure Kansas State can beat the team that emerges from the right side of the bracket, but I’d have a lot of hedging margin at 75/1.

Gonzaga to make Sweet 16 (-150)

Adam Burke: The Bulldogs should have no problems outscoring Grand Canyon in what could be the highest-scoring game of the first round. That would put Gonzaga in the second round against TCU in all likelihood. While the Horned Frogs are definitely a better team with Mike Miles Jr. out there, the defense is going to be under immense pressure against Gonzaga. TCU has problems scoring at times, particularly from 3—and they don’t take a lot of them.

Gonzaga’s defense is suspect, but there is nothing suspect about the offense, which wound up as the top unit per both Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik in adjusted offensive efficiency. TCU won’t be able to keep up with the Bulldogs’ scoring pace in an up-tempo game. This line implies a 60% chance Gonzaga makes the Sweet 16 and I think it’s definitely higher than that. They’ll be more than a -150 favorite against TCU and they’re not going to lose to Grand Canyon.

Memphis 20-1 to win the East Region

Tim Murray: Memphis has veteran guards and proved they could go toe-to-toe with the nation’s best, Houston, in the AAC Championship Game. The Tigers have a very tricky first-round matchup against Florida Atlantic but Memphis has the talent to win this region and would not be scared against top-seeded Purdue in the second round.

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