Matt Youmans – NCAA Tournament National Championship Best Bets:
Michigan (-7) vs. Connecticut
Dan Hurley is fiery, hot-headed and hated by many critics, but there’s no debating the fact the UConn basketball coach is earning his place among the all-time greats in NCAA tournament history, win or lose Monday night in Indianapolis. Hurley’s record states his case, like him or not, but there are reasons to believe he finally could get humbled on the biggest stage of all.
Several numbers point to Michigan becoming one of the greatest teams of all time — and some will argue the greatest — if it beats UConn to win the NCAA championship. The Wolverines are putting Hurley and the Huskies in an unfamiliar place as big underdogs in a title game.
Michigan’s status from a historical perspective could be a hot debate, but don’t jump to conclusions just yet. The Wolverines still need to play 40 phenomenal minutes to cut down the nets, and Hurley will attempt to force a fast-paced Michigan team to play in slow motion. The style of the fight will go a long way in determining which team wins — or covers the 7-point spread.
“We’re a group of fighters,” Hurley said. “It’s not appealing to everyone. We’re incredibly tough, we’ve got incredible will and we go into these games ready for battle. We’re fighting and it’s a life-and-death struggle for us.”
The Wolverines are plenty tough too, and their high-scoring style is more appealing. Michigan is the first team in NCAA tournament history to score 90 or more points in five straight games. UConn has allowed an average of 65 points in its five tournament games — with Duke’s 72 points being the most by an opponent.
Hurley, on an 18-1 ATS run in the past four tournaments, is a master of game preparation. UConn is disciplined on the offensive end, turning the ball over a total of only nine times in the past two games, and its defense dictates the pace. The Huskies rank 319th in tempo (64.7 possessions per 40 minutes, according to Kenpom), while the Wolverines rank 22nd (71.1). The favorite wants to glide up and down the court, and the ‘dog wants to grind it out.
Michigan (36-3) is bigger on the front line, led by 7-foot-3 Aday Mara and 6-9 Yaxel Lendeborg, yet it was bullied inside in two of its losses. Cameron Boozer scored 18 points and Duke had 34 points in the paint in a 68-63 victory over the Wolverines on Feb. 21. Big men Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff combined for 41 points as Purdue beat Michigan 80-72 in the Big Ten tournament title game on March 15. Hurley has surely studied how the Blue Devils and Boilermakers were most effective in pulling off those upsets.
Wisconsin got it done a different way, hitting 15 3-pointers in a 91-88 victory over the Wolverines on Jan. 10. UConn made 12 3s in its national semifinal win against Illinois on Saturday, but the long-range shooting of Alex Karaban, Braylon Mullins and Solo Ball has been inconsistent and not something Hurley can count on against Michigan.
Hurley will likely look to ride his low-post horse, 6-11 senior Tarris Reed, on offense to replicate what Duke and Purdue did to upend Michigan. Reed has averaged 20.8 points in five tournament games, scoring fewer than 17 points only once, so consider betting Over his prop total of 14.5 points. UConn’s biggest defensive challenges will be contesting the Wolverines’ 3-point shots, slowing their fast breaks and trying to contain Mara, who dominated with 26 points in a 91-73 destruction of Arizona.
The Huskies (34-5) are attempting to win their third NCAA title in four years, something last accomplished by UCLA in the 1970s. Hurley is not going down without a fight, and his experience in Final Four games is a meaningful factor. Wolverines coach Dusty May is a rising star who’s not going to be at a tactical disadvantage, however.
I’m holding futures which were bet last summer on UConn (15/1) and Michigan (20/1), so this title matchup is an ideal scenario. My prediction: Michigan, 74-70. The Wolverines, my pick to win this tournament from the beginning, should claim the Big Ten’s first NCAA title since 2000, but it won’t be easy.
Best Bet: UConn +7
