Matt Youmans – NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets:
It was far from a masterpiece. In fact, it was bad basketball for most of the night. But a dramatic ending can salvage an ugly game, and Tramon Mark’s jumper from the right wing was right on the mark with one second remaining to lift Texas to a 68-66 victory over North Carolina State in a First Four game in Dayton, Ohio. The best betting week of the year is here, so the Circa sportsbook was buzzing Tuesday.
The Longhorns, seeded 11th in the West Region, advanced to play No. 6 Brigham Young in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday in Portland, Oregon. It’s a long trip and a quick turnaround for Texas, and the scheduling is a problem.
I’m not in favor of expanding the NCAA field from 68 teams, but during the past two years there has been much smoke emanating from discussions about it, and that means the fire is coming. Why mess with the greatest tournament in all of sports? The answer is obvious, and it’s not going to be a travesty when it becomes reality. There is a simple way to make this tournament even better.
If the NCAA field expands — and it will soon because this is big business and it’s all about the money — it should go to 72 teams. My proposal is to add four teams in Las Vegas, with one late game Tuesday and one late game Wednesday after the First Four games in Dayton. Two more late games would boost excitement for the tournament’s first two days, in addition to improving the scheduling situation. If this plan were in place now, Texas would have an easy trip from Las Vegas to Portland for its first-round game. It makes sense to add West Coast play-in games instead of forcing all of the teams to travel to and from Dayton.
Of course, expansion plans are in the future and we’re living in the present, so here are my first-round best bets and prop plays for the NCAA Tournament:
THURSDAY GAMES
South Florida (+5) over Louisville
Star freshman Mikel Brown, Louisville’s second-leading scorer, remains out with a back injury. The 11th-seeded Bulls should have a real shot to win this game and they know how to win. Since a mid-December loss at Alabama, South Florida (25-8) is 19-3 with two losses in overtime and another loss by one point. The Bulls feature five double-figure scorers and are strong inside with 6-10 forward Izaiyah Nelson.
North Dakota State (+16.5) over Michigan State
The Summit League champs never stepped up in class this season so they could get outclassed by the Spartans, but the Bison (27-7) have good size on the front line and shoot 36.5% from 3-point range. Michigan State is not in danger of being upset, though coach Tom Izzo’s team does not blow out many opponents. In the end, point guard Jeremy Fears and explosive forward Coen Carr will probably carry the Spartans to a win by 10 to 14 points.
Georgia (-2) over Saint Louis
This has the potential to be the highest-scoring game of the first round, so consider a play Over 169.5. The Bulldogs, led by guards Jeremiah Wilkinson, Blue Cain and Kanon Catchings, appear to have too many athletes for the Billikens, who went 4-4 in their last eight games. Saint Louis is an outstanding 3-point shooting team at 40%, and Robbie Avila, also known as “Cream Abdul-Jabbar,” will do some damage in a shootout.
TCU (+2.5) over Ohio State
Senior guard Bruce Thornton is a big-time player for the Buckeyes, who got hot down the stretch and won four in a row before a narrow loss to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. The Horned Frogs have a potent one-two punch with David Punch and Xavier Edmonds. TCU is an underrated team that beat Florida and Wisconsin early in the season and didn’t back down from the heavyweights in the Big 12.
VCU (+2.5) over North Carolina
The Rams went 16-1 in their last 17 games, with the loss coming at Saint Louis in February. VCU will not fear Carolina, which is without injured leading scorer Caleb Wilson and has a low ceiling in this tournament.
Troy (+13) over Nebraska
It’s a well-documented fact Nebraska never has won an NCAA Tournament game, a streak (0-8) that will end here. It won’t be easy. The Cornhuskers are fading fast, going 6-6 in their last 12 games after a 20-0 start. Expecting this line to be close to 10, the first bet I made was Troy +14. The Trojans caught my eye in November when they played back-to-back wild games in California. Troy beat San Diego State 108-107 in double overtime and two days later took a 107-106 triple-overtime loss at USC. The Sun Belt champion Trojans have a crafty coach in Scott Cross.
Hawaii (+15.5) over Arkansas
It’s doubtful the Rainbow Warriors can hang with star point guard Darius Acuff and the Razorbacks for 40 minutes, but they can hang within this big number. Arkansas could have a hangover after putting a lot into winning the SEC tournament in Nashville and traveling to Portland for this game. Hawaii is a well-coached team that’s solid on the defensive end. The Warriors start a big lineup with 7-foot Isaac “Big Fish” Johnson and follow the lead of 6-6 senior guard Dre Bullock.
FRIDAY GAMES
Hofstra (+11.5) over Alabama
Legal troubles forced Alabama star Aden Holloway’s dismissal from the team this week, and losing Holloway (16.8 ppg, 44% 3s) is a big deal and a distraction. Hofstra, coached by Speedy Claxton, is a 24-win team that shoots it well (74% free throws, 37% 3s). Junior guard Cruz Davis (20.2 ppg, 40% 3s) can take advantage of Holloway’s absence. The Pride, 11-1 in their last 12 games, won at Pittsburgh and Syracuse in December.
Iowa (-2) over Clemson
Senior guard Bennett Stirtz can take over this game for the Hawkeyes, who defend, shoot it well (77% free throws) and have plenty of experience in close games against elite opponents. It’s worth noting that Big Ten teams went 8-0 ATS in last year’s first round. The Tigers won’t go away easily, so I’m not thrilled about laying points, but this is not one of coach Brad Brownell’s best Clemson teams.
UCF (+6) over UCLA
The good news for the Bruins is that point guard Donovan Dent and forward Tyler Bilodeau, who both left with injuries during Big Ten tournament games, are healthy and starting. The bad news for cranky coach Mick Cronin is this game is in Philadelphia, and UCLA has not fared well on long road trips. UCF runs hot and cold, but hopefully the Knights show up to fight.
Wright State (+18.5) over Virginia
Since late January, the Cavaliers are 0-2 against Duke and 13-0 against all other opponents, so it’s clear Virginia is legit and can make a run in this tournament. The Raiders, Horizon League champs, feature two young guns in guards Michael Cooper and TJ Burch.
Missouri (+2) over Miami (FL)
Despite a 22-point loss to Virginia in the ACC tournament, the Hurricanes played well down the stretch and could be a surprise team in this tournament. Miami’s weakness is free-throw shooting (68.5%). The Tigers, playing close to home in St. Louis, are led by senior guard Mark Mitchell, who scored 32 points in each of the last two games against Arkansas and Kentucky.
Queens (+25.5) over Purdue
After winning four games in four days and beating Michigan for the Big Ten tournament title, the Boilermakers are suddenly getting praised again. The preseason No. 1 team in the nation is getting support in the betting market. But coach Matt Painter, assuming he’s got a big lead, will want to rest starters some in the second half. The Royals, a 21-win team from Atlantic Sun, have six double-figure scorers, shoot lots of 3s and will sign up for all 40 minutes. Queens was blown out in early-season tests versus Arkansas, Auburn, Villanova, Virginia and Wake Forest, but the Royals are peaking now. This looks like a 90-70 type of score.
Santa Clara (+3) over Kentucky
The Broncos are hot dogs and that’s always concerning. Still, Santa Clara is talented — led by guard Christian Hammond and freshman forward Allen Graves — and well coached by Herb Sendek. Santa Clara (26-8) is 17-4 in its last 21 games with three losses to Gonzaga and one loss to Saint Mary’s. It’s tough to predict which Kentucky team will show up, but this low line says something and the sharp money is on the underdog.
Northern Iowa (+10) over St. John’s
Rick Pitino and his Big East champs drew a tough assignment in San Diego. The Panthers, the Missouri Valley champs, are tough and play at a slow pace (ranking 24th in defensive efficiency and No. 363 in tempo, per kenpom.com), so they can turn this matchup into a grinder by reducing possessions to shorten the game. The Red Storm should have to sweat this out.
Utah State (-1.5) over Villanova
It was not a strong season for the Mountain West, which got only one team in this field, but the Aggies should represent the conference well. Veteran guards MJ Collins and Mason Falslev will lead Utah State into familiar territory in San Diego. Villanova is not a pushover, yet it played poorly in a 14-point loss to Georgetown in the Big East tournament. The best records on neutral courts this season belong to Arizona (7-0), Purdue (7-0) and Utah State (6-0).
St. John’s to reach Sweet 16 (+110)
This is Rick Pitino’s time to make a deep March run. Pitino is 4-1 in his last five meetings with UConn coach Danny Hurley, punctuated by the Red Storm’s beatdown of the Huskies in the Big East tournament. St. John’s has some offensive shortcomings, yet there is no doubt about its defense and toughness, which is personified by senior big man Zuby Ejiofor. The Red Storm will get a first-round fight from Northern Iowa before taking down a Kansas team that’s not so tough away from home. St. John’s will prove it deserved better than a 5 seed.
Florida to reach Elite Eight (-160)
The defending NCAA champions will be motivated by a humbling blowout loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament. Florida had a 12-game win streak, including a 111-77 victory over Arkansas, before falling to the Commodores. There is a lot to like about the Gators, especially junior forwards Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh. It’s a team that ranks in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Florida should have no problem getting past the Clemson-Iowa winner in the second round and then gets a likely revenge game against Vanderbilt.
Largest margin of victory in the first round: Under 45.5 (-110)
The biggest favorites in the first round, Arizona and Michigan, are each laying 31 points. When the top seeds get a big lead, it’s wise to rest starters and there’s no need to win by 50. I’ll credit VSiN host Mitch Moss for touting this prop, which is posted at the Westgate SuperBook and has won 22 times in the past 25 tournaments.
Sum of all seeds to reach the Final Four: Under 9.5 (-110)
A repeat of last year, when all four No. 1 seeds reached San Antonio, is not happening. But if two top seeds reach Indianapolis, this prop probably will be a winner. My Final Four consists of a No. 5 seed (St. John’s), a No. 2 (Houston) and two No. 1s (Arizona and Michigan), and that’s a sum of nine. But that’s also with me taking a big leap of faith with the Red Storm, who are in the East Region with No. 1 Duke.
