Matt Youmans – NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Best Bets:
Cinderella is not dead, but it’s much tougher to find her in the new era of college basketball. With no salary cap and unrestricted free agency, the sport has turned into the Wild West, and only the strongest survive in the NCAA Tournament. With the field of 68 trimmed to 16 teams from power conferences, the most inspiring underdog is Iowa, which executed a brilliant game plan by coach Ben McCollum to pull off a second-round upset of reigning national champion Florida.
The Hawkeyes, seeded No. 9 in the South, finished ninth in the Big Ten. Iowa advanced to the Sweet 16 to face No. 4 Nebraska, which just picked up its first two tournament wins in program history. Texas is the lowest seed (No. 11 in the West) still standing after escaping the First Four and winning three games in five days.
High Point, a No. 12 seed, upset Wisconsin to become the first round’s Cinderella story. Siena nearly stunned top overall seed Duke, which trailed by 11 points at halftime and by five with eight minutes remaining before rallying to avoid embarrassment. Three No. 1 seeds and all four No. 2s made it through to the second weekend. My best bets for the Sweet 16:
THURSDAY GAMES
Purdue (-7) vs. Texas
Senior guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have sparked the Boilermakers to six straight wins, including impressive victories over Michigan and Nebraska in the Big Ten tournament. Purdue ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency, per Kenpom.com, and shot 22-for-38 from 3-point range in two NCAA wins. Smith controls the tempo of games and has incredible court vision, finding open perimeter shooters and setting the table for senior big men Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff. This is one of the nation’s most experienced teams, and the Boilermakers’ defensive efforts improved tremendously the past two weeks.
The Longhorns are bigger and more physical in the backcourt with 6-8 Dailyn Swain and 6-5 Tramon Mark, and 7-footer Matas Vokietaitis won’t get pushed around in the paint, so they can play Big Ten-style basketball. Texas has the worst defensive rating (No. 81) of all remaining teams, but it has tightened things up by allowing only 68.3 points in three tournament games. Both teams play at a slow pace and this could be a half-court grinder that goes to the wire, with Purdue pulling it out by three to five points.
Best Bets: Texas +7.5 (-115) and Under 149
Houston (-3) vs. Illinois
With the Cougars staying in their hometown, they have an advantage, but it’s not a huge edge because Illinois and the other two Big Ten teams in this bracket will bring plenty of fan support. Kelvin Sampson-coached teams are always strong on the defensive end and that’s Houston’s real edge against Illinois, which is sometimes too soft. The Cougars are No. 4 in defensive rating (behind Duke, Michigan and Arizona) and allowed an average of 50.3 points in their last three wins against Texas A&M, Idaho and Kansas. Houston plays it slow (No. 351 in tempo), but it does pack lots of offensive firepower with guards Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan.
With big guards and impressive size at all positions, the Fighting Illini can create mismatches and spread the floor with shooters. Illinois, which ranks second in offensive efficiency, needs guards Keaton Wagler, Kylan Boswell and Andrej Stojakovic to at least match the Cougars in the backcourt while the Illini win the rebounding battle. I picked Houston to win the South before the tournament and will stick with it, but this game is close to a coin flip. DraftKings is offering 3.5, so take the points.
Best Bet: Illinois +3.5 (-115)
FRIDAY GAMES
Duke (-7) vs. St. John’s
The injury that has sidelined point guard Caleb Foster is proving costly to a Duke team that doesn’t excel offensively in half-court sets and lacks depth. The Blue Devils are relying heavily on freshman power forward Cameron Boozer, who has had to occasionally initiate the offense, and sophomore guard Isaiah Evans. Boozer (18-for-19 on free throws in two tournament games) and the Devils often get bailed out by the officials. Duke’s defense is rock solid and the plan will be to pack it in and dare the Red Storm to shoot too many 3s.
St. John’s has offensive shortcomings (33% 3-point shooting), yet big man Zuby Ejiofor is a horse in the low post and can get a bucket when needed. The Ejiofor-Boozer matchup is monstrous, and the Red Storm senior needs to avoid foul trouble and more than hold his own if coach Rick Pitino is going to pull off this upset. St. John’s has a 21-1 record since early January and possesses the defensive toughness to prevail in a low-scoring game. Duke has not been dominant and the scare it got from Siena was not a fluke.
Best Bets: St. John’s +7 and Under 142
Connecticut (-1.5) vs. Michigan State
Jeremy Fears is a fearless point guard who gives the Spartans one significant matchup edge against UConn. Michigan State has no other clear advantages, not even Tom Izzo’s magic in March. Izzo is going up against a coach who has been second to none in this tournament the past few years as Danny Hurley is on a 15-1 ATS run. There’s no doubt the Huskies have holes, but they are also getting elite play from seniors Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed. Karaban has 49 points in two tournament games while Reed has totaled 41 points and 40 rebounds. If Braylon Mullins and Solo Ball are knocking down 3s, UConn can find a way.
Best Bet: UConn -1.5
