Men’s College Basketball Best Bets:
Day 2 of our March Madness projections and bets will feature the Wednesday games, including the much-debated Miami Redhawks vs SMU, as well as Lehigh vs Prairie View. I will have you covered with projections on every tournament game, both NCAA and NIT, which will be posted here at VSiN.com a day ahead of time. As always, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex for all the latest tidbits and analysis, as well as women’s best bets as they come throughout the tournament as well.
Men’s Projections for 3/18
| Date | Team | Team | TSI | TSI Total |
| 3/18/2026 | Bradley | Dayton | -3.5 | 145.9 |
| 3/18/2026 | California | Illinois-Chicago | 1.4 | 149.8 |
| 3/18/2026 | Colorado State | Saint Joseph’s | 1.0 | 136.2 |
| 3/18/2026 | Illinois State | Kent State | 1.4 | 151.3 |
| 3/18/2026 | Lehigh | Prairie View | 2.8 | 144.4 |
| 3/18/2026 | Nevada | Murray State | 6.5 | 157.1 |
| 3/18/2026 | New Mexico | Sam Houston | 11.0 | 154.8 |
| 3/18/2026 | SMU | Miami (OH) | 8.0 | 167.4 |
| 3/18/2026 | Utah Valley | George Washington | -2.4 | 151.1 |
| 3/18/2026 | Wake Forest | Navy | 8.8 | 147.8 |
| Negative # = Right Team Projected Favorite | ||||
| Positive # = Left Team Projected Favorite | ||||
There’s actually quite a bit of value based on my hand-crafted projections for Wednesday’s games, but I don’t want to inundate you with 20 plays (although some of you may love that). Instead, I’ll focus on a couple of my favorite plays based on the numbers.
Bets:
Miami (OH)/SMU Over 164.5 – These teams have combined for 9+ total points per game above what their opponents’ achieved on average this season, which contributes to my 167.5 point projection. Some of my formulas have this in the 180s.
George Washington +1.5 – Formulas overwhelmingly make George Washington a favorite, including the official TSI projection of GW -2.5. GW ranks higher in opponent-adjusted net margin, net efficiency, net true shooting %, net turnover margin and net rebounding %.
Kent State +6.5 – Illinois State is rightfully favored, but by way too much, according to the metrics. I project Illinois State -2.5 based mostly on the season-long aggregate metrics; however, the recent numbers really like Kent State a whole lot more, giving them advantages in every aforementioned category except a small disparity in rebounding %. I think they’ll be live to win the game.
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