Miami vs. Florida State
Most bracket projections have Miami solidly in the Field of 68, not even as a team ticketed for Dayton or anything like that. However, there are four games left in the regular season, two against higher-ranked opponents, and this tricky road tilt in Tallahassee against Florida State. This Miami vs. Florida State game is a rematch of a game that the Hurricanes lost at home back on Jan. 20, so their NCAA Tournament resume could get very placed further under the microscope with another slip-up here.
In this battle of first-year head coaches, Jai Lucas has gotten more consistency out of his Hurricanes than Luke Loucks has gotten out of his Seminoles. However, both teams have the same number of Quadrant 1 wins as defined by Bart Torvik and Florida State even has one additional Quadrant 1-A victory. This is also an interesting game for seeding in the upcoming ACC Conference Tournament, as the Hurricanes could be as high as a No. 3 seed pending the final results of the regular season.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 23, 5:30 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Miami (-1.5, 157.5) vs. Florida State
9 p.m. ET (ACC Network)
Given that I do pay more attention to the mid-major and low-major conferences for my daily handicapping, I was surprised to see Miami so safely into the field according to the 121 bracketologists surveyed at The Bracket Matrix. According to Torvik, the Hurricanes played the 231st-ranked non-conference schedule as of current rankings and KenPom has a much darker picture, as their non-conference SOS Net Rating is 342nd in the nation.
That said, they are 10-4 in ACC play, including road wins at Wake Forest and NC State that look good, along with a home win over North Carolina, one of two teams in the nation to beat Duke this season. Miami doesn’t have any outwardly bad losses, though you could argue that the home losses to Florida State and Cal coupled with a bad non-conference slate should have them closer to the bubble than they are.
Florida State is just 7-7 in ACC play, but they have won six of their last seven. Loucks is only 35 years old and this is his first head coaching gig after serving as an NBA assistant for a decade. The Florida State alum has gone through some growing pains to be sure, but it should be noted that of their seven conference losses, four of them are by four or fewer points, including the home game against Duke.
It’s hard to say who the “better” team was in that Jan. 20 game. Florida State won 65-63, as both teams struggled with jump shots. The Seminoles were 6-of-17 from 3 and the Hurricanes were 4-of-16. Both teams were 11-of-15 at the stripe. Florida State had one fewer turnover (13) than Miami, but also had five fewer offensive rebounds. Miami had four players with 10+ points, while Florida State only had two, led by 20 points from Robert McCray V.
Florida State takes a ton of 3s and that’s the main difference between these two teams that you should know. Their 50.9% 3P Rate ranks 11th in the nation, while Miami’s 31.5% 3P Rate ranks as one of the 25 lowest in the nation. It is interesting that the two teams were only separated by one 3-point attempt in the first game, given that Miami is 18th in the ACC with a 30.5 3P Rate and Florida State is third with a 48.2% 3P Rate.
What makes life as a jump-shooting team difficult is when those shots don’t fall. Florida State sits 15th in the 18-team conference in 3P% at 32.7%. That’s why we’ve seen so much inconsistency from them, as they take a lot of 3s and don’t shoot them well overall, but on a good night, they can compete with anybody in the conference. Miami is more about physicality and getting to the rim, as they rank dead last in 3P%, but third in 2P%, third in ORB%, and first in FT Rate.
In other words, we have two very different styles of play here. It should also be said that the Seminoles have been dismal from deep in ACC games, shooting just 27.7% in Tallahassee, while opponents are shooting 38.1%. Usually being at home in a familiar setting helps shooters feel more comfortable. Somehow that has not been the case for FSU.
Miami comes into this one healthy with Tru Washington back for the last three games after missing the previous three. Washington is fourth among four Hurricanes averaging at least 11.7 PPG, led by Malik Reneau with 19.5 PPG and 6.4 RPG. Tre Donaldson (16.4 PPG) is the facilitator on offense with 5.8 APG. This is a team averaging nearly 83 points per game with their ability to get the ball inside.
Florida State’s roster is intact as well, but there’s a lot less balance. McCray leads the way with 15.7 PPG and the offense also runs through him with 5.9 APG, but he’s also turned it over nearly four times per contest. Chauncey Wiggins (12.4 PPG) and Lajae Jones (11.9 PPG) are the only other guys averaging double figures. McCray is the only guy on the team with more than 92 shot attempts at the rim, as Florida State has taken more 3s (860) than 2s (834).
Miami vs. Florida State Prediction
The total in the first game opened 167.5, closed 163.5, and never got close, as we’ve seen Under money hit the board early in the betting process for this game, even with a total adjusted down quite a bit. Florida State should hold the advantage, given that Miami is 18th in 3P% and 17th in 3P% against in conference play, but the Seminoles are really hit or miss shooting triples. Something else worth noting is that Florida State’s defensive numbers were awful in the early going of conference play and they’ve been much better of late. This is an improving team under Loucks and Miami feels overrated and over-ranked in my mind.
Pick: Florida State +1.5
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