Michigan State vs. Louisville Prediction
In the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, Michigan State vs. Louisville is the second-round game on Saturday, March 21 with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
Make VSiN your home for the duration of the NCAA Tournament and beyond. Take advantage of our college basketball betting tools and previews and predictions on every single March Madness game. We have College Basketball Betting Splits from DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa Sports, updated Vegas College Basketball Odds, College Basketball Odds from other states, College Basketball Matchup Data, and more.
Check out Greg Peterson’s Daily College Basketball Lines, Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings Lines, and look at College Basketball Picks from our VSiN Experts.
See all of our game previews and predictions in our March Madness Betting Hub.
Sign up for the FREE March Betting Challenge sponsored by ProphetX and EdgeBoost and/or the $1 Million High Stakes Survivor Madness presented by Splash Sports.
How to Watch Michigan State vs. Louisville
When: 2:45 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 21st
Where: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York
Watch: CBS
Odds for Michigan State vs. Louisville
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Michigan State -4.5 (-110), Louisville +4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 150.5 (-110), Under 150.5 (-110)
Michigan State vs. Louisville Prediction & Preview
Louisville survived a ferocious second-half rally from South Florida in the opening round, winning 83-79 but crushing Cardinals -4.5 bettors in the process. Still, Louisville is in the second round without Mikel Brown Jr., which isn’t a small feat considering how important he is to the team. Brown averages 18.2 points and 4.7 assists per game. He’s an electric shot-maker and a high-level shot-creator, which is why he’s a crucial piece of the puzzle in this Pat Kelsey offense. Now, it’ll be interesting to see if the Cardinals can find a way to knock off Tom Izzo’s Spartans. The odds imply they have a strong chance, as they’re getting fewer points than I expected they would. However, I think there’s some real value in laying it with Michigan State.
The Spartans are always a strong defensive team. This year isn’t any different. Michigan State was No. 16 in the nation in Bart Torvik’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (96.1) heading into the tournament, so this is a group that gets after it defensively. The Spartans were also holding teams to 32.6% shooting from deep before March Madness, so they do a decent job of defending the 3-point line. That’ll be big against a Cardinals team that lives and dies by the 3-ball. If Michigan State can just keep Louisville from lighting the scoreboard up like a pinball machine — which will be a heck of a lot easier without Brown on the court — it’s hard to imagine the Spartans losing this one. They’re bigger and tougher than the Cardinals, ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rebound rate — a ho-hum Izzo team trait.
It should absolutely be noted that Louisville isn’t completely depleted on the perimeter. Even with Brown out, this team still has Ryan Conwell, Isaac McKneely, and J’Vonne Hadley in the backcourt. All of those players, along with Adrian Wooley, can make things happen. However, it’ll be much easier for a good Michigan State defensive backcourt to go about its business without having to deal with an NBA-level offensive talent.
This is also a Spartans team that can shoot the 3-ball. Of course, it is an Izzo-led team, so this isn’t a group that’s firing them up. But the Spartans were shooting 36.3% from deep before the tournament, so they’ll benefit from the type of quality looks the Cardinals occasionally let up. They shot 50% from deep against North Dakota State last round, which tells a good story about the way this team plays. The Spartans don’t shoot nearly enough, but they can hit them.
Michigan State will also have the best player on the floor, which is always a nice thing. Jeremy Fears Jr. is a walking double-double at the point guard spot, capable of getting himself or his teammates some good shots whenever he decides it’s time to attack. I also like Jaxon Kohler as an experienced big that does a lot of things well, as I think he can take advantage of the Cardinals being a perimeter-oriented team.
Let’s also just note that this is Izzo in March. While there’s a big list of elite college coaches that haven’t accomplished much of anything in the postseason, Izzo belongs nowhere near it. He’s a proven winner and his style of play is battle-tested. Kelsey’s trigger-happy offense has turned Louisville around, but the Cardinals haven’t yet made a run.
Estimated Score: Michigan State 78.1, Louisville 73.2
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
