Michigan State vs. Purdue
Thursday nights are often reserved for the mid and low-major conferences in college basketball, but a couple of invaders have arrived for Feb. 26. Michigan State vs. Purdue sticks out like a sore thumb on the card, as the only Big Ten matchup and the only game from the major four conferences.
Interested viewers will have to get Peacock to watch this one, but there’s a lot of good content on there outside of Big Ten basketball, so it is a pretty worthwhile streaming service to have if you can stomach adding another one. If you already have it, well, no additional purchase necessary to check out this top-15 battle and the only game featuring ranked teams on Thursday.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 25, 4:00 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Michigan State at Purdue (-6.5, 138.5)
8 p.m. ET (Peacock)
It is wild to think that these two teams have played 16 conference games apiece and have not played each other. This is the one and only meeting between the two really solid ballclubs. Both are 12-4 in conference play, so this game has some extra-added incentive in terms of seeding and tiebreakers for the Big Ten Conference Tournament to be held in Chicago at the United Center next month.
Whoever wins will also have the chance to keep pace with Illinois and Nebraska in the quest for the No. 2 seed in the Windy City. The top four seeds all get byes to the quarterfinals in the 18-team conference, but, theoretically, the better the seed line, the better the path, the better your seed could be in the NCAA Tournament.
But, that’s in the future and we have this game in front of us right now. Three of Purdue’s five losses have come at Mackey Arena against Iowa State, Illinois, and Michigan. All of those teams were in the top 10 per Torvik at the time the game was played. Michigan State is 15th heading into action, so this is something of a step down from those opponents, but clearly still a formidable foe. Three of Sparty’s four conference losses have been on the road to Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, with all three of those teams ranked outside the Torvik Top 10. Purdue is ranked No. 7.
Statistically, these two teams have a lot of similarities. Both teams are jump shot-heavy, as Purdue has a shot share on Close Twos of just 28.7% and Michigan State is at just 32.4%. Both teams finish at a high rate all over the floor, including at the rim, but Purdue is definitely the better offense between the two. The Boilermakers take better care of the ball and shoot a much higher percentage on both 2s and 3s.
In fact, Purdue is a top-20 offense in both 2P% and 3P%, while Michigan State sits outside the top 100 in both categories. However, while the Boilermakers shine with the basketball, they shine a lot less than the Spartans without it. Michigan State has a top-40 ranking in 2P% and 3P%, whereas Purdue is outside the top 200 in 2P% defense and well outside the top 100 in 3P% defense. That makes this your classic “Offense vs. Defense” type of game.
Even from a tempo standpoint, both teams are very similar, so expect 65 or 66 possessions or so in Thursday’s tilt. These two defensive units also force a ton of long-distance jumpers. Over 45% of shot attempts against both teams have been 3s, so that really creates a high-variance environment and a wide range of outcomes to this game.
In terms of conference-only performance, Purdue is second in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, but that is a really misleading ranking. Out of the 18 teams, Purdue is 15th in eFG% defense and 13th in both 2P% and 3P% defense. Their adjusted efficiency ranking comes from having one of the higher TO% in the conference on defense and they are one of the best defensive rebounding teams. A skill to be sure, but one neutralized by how many made shots they allow.
Michigan State is just 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency, but second in adjusted defensive efficiency. And their ADE is not inflated by turnover or rebounding numbers. They are the second-best defense by eFG%, sitting second in 2P% and third in 3P% against. The old adage is that defense travels. We’ll see tonight.
Michigan State vs. Purdue Prediction
The top five teams in the Big Ten in eFG% defense are Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois, and UCLA. Purdue has lost to three of those teams, needed overtime to beat Nebraska, and shot 30.5% from 3 over those four games. For a team with some really shoddy defensive performances at times, the 3-ball creates additional margin for error and that may not be a luxury available to the Boilermakers in this game.
Pick: Michigan State +6.5
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