Men’s College Basketball National Championship Best Bets:
Michigan (-6.5, 144.5) vs. Connecticut
Michigan disposed of Arizona late Saturday night, shortly after UConn completed the small upset of Illinois earlier in the evening. So now, the stage is set for a Dan Hurley vs. Dusty May national championship game Monday night. Both teams being here is truly a testament to the coaching acumen of both coaches; Hurley is in his third championship game in four years, and May has Michigan here in just his second season after the maize and blue won single-digit games two years ago.
Michigan is winning NCAA tournament games by an average of 21.6 points per game, after laying waste to Howard, Saint Louis, Alabama, Tennessee and Arizona to get here. The Huskies are winning by just 8.2 points per game, but finding ways to control games – aside from the Duke comeback win – nonetheless, after beating Furman, UCLA, Michigan State, Duke and Illinois to arrive in the title game. Michigan has covered in its last four games and gone Over the total in three of those four, while UConn has also covered in four straight but has gone Under in three of those four.
My T Shoe Index projects Michigan -10.5 with a total of 148.5, indicating strong value on the Wolverines and the Over. I was curious to see how these teams had done in their “second game of the weekend” throughout the tournament, and found that U Conn won and covered while going Under the total in the round of 32, and won and covered while going Over the total in the Elite Eight. Michigan won and covered while going Over the total in both of its second games of the weekend so far in the tournament, so I don’t think there’s a huge edge to be gained on either the side or total with that approach. I’m going to back the Wolverines and take the Over here in the title game. Thanks for following along this season, and be sure to follow me on X and check back here in May for my WNBA projections and bets all summer long.
Bet: Michigan -6.5
Bet: Over 144.5
