Michigan vs. Duke
College basketball pundits, prognosticators, and bracketologists seem to universally agree that all Michigan needs to do is beat Duke to lock up the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. This random non-conference clash in the heart of conference play does make for a unique situational spot for both teams, as this Michigan vs. Duke matchup in Washington D.C. represents the first non-conference game in 2026 for both.
The other thing that makes this game so interesting is that neither team has an equal in the conference. Michigan is the No. 1 team in the nation per the rankings sites and Duke is pretty clearly the top ACC team. Illinois is considered a top-five team by both KenPom and Bart Torvik, but the Wolverines haven’t played them yet. That’ll happen this coming Friday. As far as Duke, Louisville is considered their closest competition by rank and they beat the Cardinals by 11 and 31 in two head-to-head meetings.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 20, 4:30 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Michigan (-2.5, 149.5) vs. Duke
6:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This game is billed as the Edward Jones Capital Showcase, as this one seems to be a battle between two No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. The Bracket Matrix is a survey of 113 different bracketologists and Michigan and Duke are No. 1 seeds in all 113 brackets. A loss here, given the magnitude of the game and the quality of opponent, shouldn’t be hurtful for the team that comes up short. But, it will certainly be viewed as quite a notch on the proverbial belt for the victor.
Duke has only come up short twice this season, a one-point neutral-site loss to Texas Tech and a three-point road loss to rival North Carolina. Michigan lost by three at home to Wisconsin in mid-January in a 91-88 loss. In that game, Wisconsin was 15-of-33 from 3 and Michigan was just 8-of-25, so that was pretty clearly the difference in how the score played out.
Duke is certainly capable of putting up one of those shooting performances here to make life hard on Michigan, but it does seem like the one Achilles heel for the Blue Devils is perimeter shooting. They are only shooting 34.5% from 3 in ACC action, which is hardly a bad percentage, but it ranks 10th among the 18 teams in the conference. Michigan, meanwhile, is shooting 36.3% from deep against Big Ten foes in what many believe is the best conference in the nation. That ranks third among a lot of sharpshooting teams.
One similarity between the two teams is that both excel on 2-pointers. Duke is shooting 62% and Michigan is shooting 62.6%. Another similarity is that each one of these teams really shines on the defensive end. When considering the teams side-by-side, it is important to note that Michigan has played the better slate of opposing offenses and defenses, with KenPom showing Michigan against the 10th-ranked slate of offenses and Duke against the 23rd-ranked set of teams in that regard.
In other words, that’s essentially why Michigan is favored. The bodies of work are comparable in so many ways. Michigan has just played a better schedule. But, the line is only 2.5, so it’s hardly a huge gap. The other question about this game is the tempo. Michigan likes to play fast, leveraging their advantage over the opposition on every possession by getting as many possessions as they can. Duke is a much more controlled team.
In terms of the names to know, Michigan has five players averaging double figures, led by high-profile transfer Yaxel Lendeborg with 14.4 PPG. The top three scorers for Michigan – Lendeboerg, Morez Johnson, and Aday Mara – have also all pulled down over seven rebounds per game. Duke’s distribution is more top-heavy, as lottery pick Cameron Boozer has racked up 22.8 PPG and 10 RPG while also leading the team in assists per game.
Isaiah Evans, who is second in PPG for Duke with 14.7, doesn’t have a great FG% overall, but it isn’t really from a lack of efficiency. He’s taken 180 3-point shots against just 103 2-point shots, so that’ll hurt your overall percentage.
Michigan vs. Duke Prediction
Doesn’t it seem like Michigan should be a bigger favorite here? They have a better distribution as a team when it comes to scoring, have played the harder schedule, reside in the tougher conference, and they are 10-0 in Quadrant 1 games, while Duke is 10-2. This short number of just a possession is a pretty intriguing number. Per Haslametrics, Michigan is 297th in the nation in Away From Home performance, which is a metric that compares their home and road numbers. This neutral setting adds a wrinkle to the game to be sure.
Pick: Duke +2.5
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