Michigan vs. Illinois
Guess who is in the college basketball spotlight again. It’s Michigan, as the Wolverines take part in far and away the biggest game on the board for Friday night with a visit to Champaign to take on Illinois. There are no other major-conference games on the Feb. 27 schedule, so Michigan vs. Illinois not only stands head, shoulders, knees, and toes above the rest of the card, but also draws a national TV audience on FOX with an 8 p.m. ET tip-off.
Michigan failed in a huge neutral-site test last weekend against Duke and now they have another chance to prove why they should be the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. This game has been a long time coming, as the two teams meet for the one and only time in the regular season, even though the Illini started conference play back on Dec. 9 and the Wolverines back on Dec. 6.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 26, 4:00 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Michigan (-1.5, 156.5) vs. Illinois
8 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Wolverines are a perfect 9-0 in true road games and eight of those victories have been on the road in conference play. That includes a resounding 11-point win over Purdue about a week and a half ago in their stiffest travel test of the Big Ten schedule. Well, that was the stiffest travel test. This one is more of a test, as KenPom has Illinois ranked No. 4 overall and Bart Torvik has them ranked No. 5 with both showing Purdue as a top-10 team, but not a top-five squad.
We could be discussing Illinois in a very different light. The Illini have gone 13-4 in conference play and three of their four losses have been in overtime, including their loss last Saturday on the road at UCLA in which they had one of their worst defensive showings of the season. Illinois scored 94 points and had 1.290 points per possession, but that wasn’t enough.
The reality is that if Brad Underwood’s team could force a couple extra turnovers here or there, there wouldn’t be as much strain on the offense. There are 365 Division I teams and Illinois’ 11.5% TO% ranks 365th. Many of their other metrics range from elite to above average, but that’s one that sticks out like the sorest of thumbs. Like a thumb hit by one of those comically-large mallets from the old cartoons.
Here’s the thing…Illinois’ TO% on defense in conference play is even worse at 10.8%. The next lowest in the conference is Maryland at 12.5%. The next lowest nationally in conference-only action is surprisingly Alabama at just 10.7%. The Crimson Tide are 11-4 in conference games. The others in the bottom five in TO% outside of Illinois and Alabama are 4-12 (North Florida), 6-11 (Providence), and 5-10 (Mississippi State).
The way to overcome not getting extra possessions from the defense is to perform at a very high level on offense. In a very gifted Big Ten Conference, Illinois leads in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’re fifth in eFG% offense, first in ORB%, and fourth in TO% at just 12.7%. So, while they aren’t getting extra possessions with takeaways, they’re protecting the basketball and getting some of those additional chances by hitting the offensive glass really hard.
Michigan sits third in the Big Ten in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency per Torvik. They’re shooting nearly 61% on 2-pointers and have a +13.6% 2P% differential. By comparison, Illinois is at +6.4%. Michigan also has a big gap in 3P% success over their opponents, as they’re shooting just shy of 37% and have held opponents to just 30.6%.
Shot selection is one of the key differences between these teams. For as well as the Illini do on the offensive glass, they only have a 32.1% shot share on Close Twos, as over 51% of their field goal attempts have been triple tries. Michigan has a 43.5% shot share on Close Twos and a 42.8% 3P Rate. Between the offensive shot selection and how the teams defend, Michigan is seventh nationally in eFG% offense and second in eFG% defense, while Illinois is 33rd and 30th, respectively.
Michigan vs. Illinois Prediction
One area where Michigan has faltered a bit is taking care of the basketball. Their 16.6% TO% ranks 14th out of 18 teams, so even though that’s not bad from a national standpoint, it is poor by Big Ten standards. However, Illinois isn’t a team likely to force a lot of turnovers. In my estimation, I prefer Michigan’s shot selection to how the Illini operate, especially since the Wolverines are among the best 3P% defenses in the nation. The Illini have lost to Nebraska (No. 1 in 3P% defense), Michigan State (No. 3), UCLA (No. 4), and Wisconsin (No. 8) in conference play. Michigan is better offensively than all of those teams, but just as stingy or even more when it comes to defending 3s.
Pick: Michigan -1.5
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