Michigan vs. Saint Louis Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 9 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, Michigan vs. Saint Louis is the second-round game on Saturday, March 21 with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
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How to Watch Michigan vs. Saint Louis
When: 12:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 21
Where: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY
Watch: CBS
Odds for Michigan vs. Saint Louis
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Michigan -13.5 (-110), Saint Louis +13.5 (-110)
Total: Over 161.5 (-110), Under 161.5 (-110)
Michigan vs. Saint Louis Prediction & Preview
Say what you want about the level of competition Saint Louis faces during the regular season, but finishing No. 1 in the country in EFG% (59.9) and No. 2 in EFG% Defense (44.6%) is impressive. This team was absolutely stellar during the year when it came to 2PT% (59.6%) and 3PT% (40.2%), while also being elite at guarding both (44.6% 2PT% Defense and 29.8% 3PT% Defense). That type of profile gives you a shot against anyone, and we did see some good wins out of this team during the year. Saint Louis was 2-0 against VCU during the regular season, and that’s a team that we saw beat North Carolina on Thursday. Also, Saint Louis completely dominated Georgia in the first round, earning a 25-point win over a good SEC opponent.
This team just has an awesome big man in Robbie Avila, who people have been wanting to see in a tournament setting for a while now. Well, this is it. “Cream Abdul-Jabbar” is going to get to show off his fun style, as he’s a chunky fella that can knock down 3s, score around the basket, and make plays for his teammates. Avlla is also surrounded by a talented group of guards — and a group that has guys that offer different things. All of that, combined with the sharp basketball mind of head coach Josh Schertz and the team’s break-neck pace, makes Saint Louis a dangerous team. And that’s even true against Michigan.
Dusty May has legitimately turned the Wolverines into a blue blood, as it’s Year 2 and Michigan is a 32-win team with top-five numbers in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (128.1) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (92.3). The Wolverines have arguably the best player in the country in Yaxel Lendeborg, a dominant forward that can do absolutely everything on the floor. They also have an interior force in Aday Mara, plus a strong collection of guards, wings, and forwards. Even still, it’ll take a great performance from Michigan in order to cover this big number against Saint Louis.
The Wolverines have actually been pretty lousy when it comes to covering numbers lately. They didn’t cover the 30.5-point spread against Howard in the first round, marking their sixth consecutive non-cover and eighth in the last nine games.
The big concern in a game like this is the size mismatch. Michigan’s starting five is going to be huge compared to Saint Louis’. However, the Wolverines will need Morez Johnson Jr. and Mara to play very well in order for that to matter. And the Billikens have done a good job of defending around the basket this year, even with an undersized frontcourt. That said, I feel this should be a game Saint Louis can keep tight, and I also think this is Michigan’s biggest landmine until the Elite Eight.
Estimated Score: Michigan 86.8, Saint Louis 74.9
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
