NC State vs. Texas Prediction
In the No. 11 vs. No. 11 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, NC State vs. Texas is the First Four game at 9:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 17 with a trip to first round on the line.
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How to Watch NC State vs. Texas
When: 9:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 17th
Where: UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Watch: truTV
Odds for NC State vs. Texas
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: NC State -1.5 (-105), Texas +1.5 (-115)
Total: Over 159.5 (-110), Under 159.5 (-110)
NC State vs. Texas Prediction & Preview
Will Wade has been to nine NCAA Tournaments in 10 seasons with four different programs, and the departure from LSU being messy doesn’t change what he’s accomplished as a coach. Kevin Keatts took a No. 11 seed to the Final Four and was still shown the door, which tells you something about the expectations in Raleigh, and Wade has delivered in Year 1 by getting the Wolfpack dancing again after a one-year absence. The formula is straightforward: shoot 3s at an elite clip, protect the ball, and win the possession battle. NC State finished conference play with the lowest offensive turnover rate in the ACC and third-highest defensive turnover rate, nearly +5% in turnover differential. They can shoot — 41.3% from 3 in road and neutral settings is a real weapon — and for a lot of teams, that’s enough to grind out wins.
The defensive profile, though, is genuinely troubling. NC State finished 15th in 3-point percentage defense, 11th in 2-point percentage defense, and 14th in eFG% defense in ACC play, and was the worst defensive rebounding team in the conference by a significant margin. They also lost six of their final seven regular season games and surrendered 1.336 points per possession to Pitt in the ACC Tournament, which is a number that belongs in a video game set to rookie difficulty. Finishing 11-12 in Quadrant 1 and 2 games and just 2-6 in Quadrant 1-A games, plus dropping a Quadrant 4 home game to Georgia Tech, adds more red ink to a ledger that already has plenty. Wade is a good coach and the shooting is real, but there are a lot of shortcomings that one elite shooting night can paper over only so much.
Texas arrives in Dayton having survived the Selection Sunday bubble in the least convincing fashion possible. Five losses in their final six games, including a surprise defeat to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament, had the Longhorns genuinely uncertain about their postseason fate. The Committee gave them a lifeline, and there’s a layer of unintentional comedy in the venue — Sean Miller’s Xavier team was sent to Dayton last season and faced Texas in that exact building. Miller knows the environment. His current team is getting introduced to it for the first time.
The case for Texas is built on offensive production and conference credibility. Six Quadrant 1 wins in the SEC is legitimately respectable, and the Longhorns grade out as a top-25 adjusted offensive efficiency team with a lot of offensive rebounds, free throw opportunities, and enough 3-point shooting to be dangerous on a given night. The case against them is equally clear — terrible at forcing turnovers, poor 3-point defense, a 1-4 record in Quadrant 2 games, and an assist rate in the 340s that suggests a team of individual scorers rather than a cohesive offensive unit. This is probably the worst defensive team Miller has taken to the NCAA Tournament in a long coaching career, and that’s a meaningful distinction in a single-elimination format.
The matchup essentially comes down to which team’s shooting night decides it. NC State’s 3-point efficiency in road and neutral settings is the best individual weapon either team brings to Dayton, but Texas’s offensive rebounding and free throw generation can compensate for cold shooting in ways that the Wolfpack simply cannot. The Longhorns’ Quadrant 1 résumé is the tiebreaker. Wade will have NC State ready to fire, but Miller’s team has enough offensive infrastructure to survive a bad shooting night. Texas should advance to face BYU, but don’t be surprised if it takes an extra possession or two at the end to get there.
Estimated Score: TBD
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