Duke vs. Baylor March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 9 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, the Duke Blue Devils face the Baylor Bears in second-round action.
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How to Watch Duke vs. Baylor
When: 2:40 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 23rd
Where: Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC
Watch: CBS
Odds for Duke vs. Baylor
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Duke -11.5 (-115), Baylor +11.5 (-105)
Total: Over 144.5 (-115), Under 144.5 (-105)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Duke vs. Baylor Matchup Page
Duke vs. Baylor Preview & Prediction
Despite a rough shooting effort to start the day in Raleigh, Baylor was able to prevail over Mississippi State by a 75-72 count in a really good game to keep off the Friday action. The Bears only shot 24% from 3 and 43.5% from the field, but won the battle on the offensive glass and in the turnover department to advance to the second round to face Duke.
The Blue Devils got some token opposition at best from a Mount St. Mary’s team that has been a great story this month, making their way through the MAAC and Dayton in spite of some key injuries. But, the Blue Devils, a team that checks basically every box for being a NCAA Tournament champion, were simply way, way, way too much.
As a top-five team in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, plus eFG% offense and defense, Duke is statistically one of the strongest teams that we’ve seen in a while. On the other hand, as we’ve seen already in the tournament with Clemson and Louisville, the ACC is not what it once was. Nevertheless, Duke’s run through the ACC Tournament without Cooper Flagg was thoroughly impressive and the three freshmen that play huge minutes for them have the chance to really grow up on the fly in this tournament.
This is not a very good version of Baylor, as the Bears have struggled to shoot and defend all year long. Their 1-11 record in Quadrant 1-A games could be on display here, especially as a team that ranks well outside the top 100 in 3P% and outside the top 150 in 2P%. Their claim to fame is on the offensive glass, but 7-foot-2 Khaman Maluach will have something to say about that and Duke might as well get an NIL deal with Windex for how they’ve cleaned the boards on both ends of the floor. The Blue Devils are in the top 40 in ORB% and ORB% against per Bart Torvik. Michigan State is the only other power-conference team to do that this season.
The spread is the great equalizer, as it seems like Baylor has a very small chance of beating Duke, but do they have enough shot-making in them to cover the spread? I guess we’ll find out on Sunday, as Duke opened -11.5 at DraftKings immediately after their first-round win.
Estimated Score: Duke 77.9, Baylor 66.5
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
