Alabama vs. BYU March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 2 vs. No. 6 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, the Alabama Crimson Tide face the BYU Cougars in some Sweet 16 action.
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How to Watch Alabama vs. BYU
When: 7:09 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 27th
Where: Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
Watch: CBS
Odds for Alabama vs. BYU
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Alabama -3.5 (-115), BYU +3.5 (-105)
Total: Over 172.5 (-110), Under 172.5 (-110)
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Alabama vs. BYU Preview & Prediction
When the bracket first came out, everybody got a little excited about the possibility of seeing a meeting between Alabama and BYU. These are two of the nation’s top-five offenses when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. The Crimson Tide play at the fastest pace in the country, which isn’t surprising considering Nate Oats has stressed a fast-paced offense since arriving in Tuscaloosa. Meanwhile, the Cougars don’t play quite as fast, but they’re 26th in the nation in 3PT% (37.3%) and 20th in 3-point rate (47.8%). BYU is also sixth in the nation in 2PT% (58.4%). Kevin Young, known as an offensive guru in his stint with the Phoenix Suns, has brought a Moreyball approach to this Cougars program. BYU looks for dunks, layups and triples. This team doesn’t force much of anything in the mid-range area.
All of that should amount to an extremely high-scoring game. In fact, when discussing the possibility of this matchup before the tournament started, many joked that this total couldn’t possibly be set high enough. Well, I actually think the opening number of 172.5 is a bit low. The Over has hit in eight of Alabama’s last 12 games, and BYU is 21-14 to the Over this season. Realistically, if the Cougars don’t go extremely cold from deep, which many would argue is possible after an unconscious shooting day against Wisconsin, it’s hard to envision this game not being outrageously high in scoring. Alabama has played 10 games against top-10 offenses this season, and the total is 8-2 in those games. However, the average total points scored in the two meetings with Kentucky that went Under was 174.0 points per game. So, it’s not like those were low-scoring affairs.
The side actually feels much tougher to call. Alabama is ranked a little higher than BYU offensively, as Torvik has the Tide fourth and the Cougars fifth. But Alabama is right on the cusp of being a top-25 defensive team. BYU is 54th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. That’s a pretty big difference, and offense isn’t the only thing that matters. However, if the Cougars are going to play the way they did against the Badgers, that statement will be tested.
BYU shot 12 for 26 from 3 against Wisconsin, and everything the team was doing was opening up easy opportunities at the rim. The Cougars also went 15 for 16 from the free throw line. Realistically, when BYU’s offense is in full gear, there’s not much opponents can do. But it should be noted that the Cougars were able to punk the Badgers inside. That won’t be possible against Crimson Tide big man Grant Nelson.
Alabama will also have the best player on the floor in Mark Sears. The small, lefty shot creator should be able to torch a mediocre defense like this one. And while Egor Demin is tremendous for the Cougars, there’s nobody in this game that can impact things like Sears can. So, if this game is close in the final five minutes, don’t be surprised if Sears’ ability to score in isolation ends up being the difference.
Oats’ ability to coach can also be a big difference maker in this one. Young is clearly an offensive genius, and he has done an awesome job in his first year leading a college program. But BYU did come close to choking away the Wisconsin game, with the Badgers actually getting a decent look to tie as time expired. It’s not easy to win in March when you’ve never been in big spots before. Well, Oats is coming off a run to the Final Four. He knows how to pull the right strings in pressure moments.
Estimated Score: Alabama 90, BYU 85
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