Alabama vs. Saint Mary’s March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, the Alabama Crimson Tide face the Saint Mary’s Gaels in second-round action.
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How to Watch Alabama vs. Saint Mary’s
When: 6:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 23rd
Where: Rocket Arena in Cleveland, OH
Watch: TNT
Odds for Alabama vs. Saint Mary’s
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Alabama -5.5 (-110), Saint Mary’s +5.5 (-110)
Total: Over 147.5 (-115), Under 147.5 (-105)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Alabama vs. Saint Mary’s Matchup Page
Alabama vs. Saint Mary’s Preview & Prediction
If you are looking for a contrast of styles, then this is the game for you. Alabama, who had more trouble than expected with Robert Morris, and Saint Mary’s, who won a low-scoring, low-possession game against Vanderbilt, come together in the second round. And what a fun game it will be!
Saint Mary’s ranks among the five slowest teams in college basketball. Alabama is the fastest from a tempo standpoint. The Crimson Tide will fire at will from 3, as 46% of their shot attempts are from deep. Saint Mary’s has one of the 60 lowest 3P Rates in the nation. Alabama has 153 dunks on the season. Saint Mary’s has 36.
As different as these two teams are, though, they’ve both found success in their respective ways. What will be fascinating to see here is if the Gaels can drag the Crimson Tide through the mud or not. Gonzaga isn’t as fast as they’ve been in past seasons, but Saint Mary’s played them three times and won 62-58 and 74-67 during the regular season before losing 58-51 in the WCC Tournament. Those games were played to 61, 62, and 62 possessions. Alabama has played two games under 70 possessions all year in they were in back-to-back games with a win over McNeese and a loss to Purdue.
So, the tempo of this game will be important, but so will the shot selection. Under Nate Oats, Alabama’s Rim & 3 Rate is off the charts, coming in at more than 88%. Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s takes a 3 about 12% less often and replaces those shot attempts with mid-range jumpers. Usually, coaches are fine with the opposition taking mid-range jumpers. Will Oats instruct his team to clog up the middle and force the Gaels outside more?
The Crimson Tide took that Rim & 3 Rate and found great success, ranking in the top five in 2P% and top 125 in 3P%. They’re a top-10 team by eFG%, while Saint Mary’s is in the 170s in that department. The Gaels often win games by making them ugly rock fights, where they can win on the glass and minimize the number of possessions since they don’t shoot all that well. Alabama, though, is efficient enough on both ends of the floor for Randy Bennett’s team to have a really tough time here. This does feel like a tough line to set, as DraftKings opened Alabama -5.5 and 147.5 on the total.
Estimated Score: Alabama 76.9, St. Mary’s 70.7
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