Arizona vs. Oregon March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, the Arizona Wildcats take on the Oregon Ducks in second-round action.
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How to Watch Arizona vs. Oregon
When: 9:40 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 23rd
Where: Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington
Watch: TBS
Odds for Arizona vs. Oregon
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Arizona -4.5 (-105), Oregon +4.5 (-115)
Total: Over 153.5 (-110), Under 153.5 (-110)
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Arizona vs. Oregon Preview & Prediction
March Madness After Dark? We are getting a Pac-12 reunion in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, and the game isn’t starting until 9:40 pm ET. This very much feels like a matchup that Bill Walton would have approved.
I personally am fascinated with this one. KenPom has Arizona as his 14th-ranked team in net rating. Oregon is down at 28th in the nation. However, Oregon found something late in the year. Since February 11th, the Ducks are 9-1 and sit 14th in the country in Bart Torvik’s efficiency rankings. That’s right above the Wildcats, who are 6-6 since then.
I’m just not sure Arizona should be laying this big of a number, as Oregon is a nightmare of a second-round matchup. While the Wildcats are 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this year, the Ducks are a top-30 defensive team and played more like a top-10 defensive team down the stretch. Also, after losing to Arizona in two regular-season games last year, Oregon got into the Pac-12 tournament and earned a 67-59 win over Tommy Lloyd’s team. And given Dana Altman’s history as a tournament coach, that isn’t that surprising.
Since 2010-11, Altman is 76-30 straight-up in the month of March. His defensive system is proven in a tournament setting, and he generally has guards that are poised and ready to execute offensively at this time of year. That’s no different this season, with Jackson Shelstad, Keeshawn Barthelemy and TJ Bamba making up a great trio of guards. He also happens to have one of the best bigs in the country in center Nate Bittle.
Altman’s success in March would be extremely valuable on its own heading into the second round of the tournament, but it means even more when you look to the other sideline and see Lloyd. Since becoming the head coach of Arizona, the Wildcats are just 2-5 against the spread under Lloyd. They’re also just 16-16 ATS in neutral-court games with Lloyd calling the shots. Of course, Arizona did look great against Akron last game. You can’t take that away from them. But you only have to go back to last year for an ugly Wildcats loss to Princeton. And while some of the key players from that team are gone, others remain. That scar tissue will be there if things are tight in the second half.
This has simply been a game that I have had circled since seeing the bracket come out, as it feels like a very winnable game for Oregon. Bittle is going to be ready to go to war with Henry Veesaar around the basket, and I have way more trust in the Ducks backcourt than I do the one that is led by Caleb Love. I know Love has made some big shots throughout his college career, but he’s also the type of player that can play you out of a game. Altman is definitely aware of that, so it’ll be interesting to see how he attacks this with the defensive game plan.
Estimated Score: Arizona 77.4, Oregon 73.4
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