Florida vs. Texas Tech March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 3 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, the Florida Gators take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Elite Eight action.
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How to Watch Florida vs. Texas Tech
When: 6:09 pm ET on Saturday, March 29th
Where: Chase Center in San Francisco, CA
Watch: TBS
Odds for Florida vs. Texas Tech
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Florida -6.5 (-110), Texas Tech +6.5 (-110)
Total: Over 155.5 (-110), Under 155.5 (-110)
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Florida vs. Texas Tech Preview & Prediction
This year’s NCAA Tournament has lacked a little bit of drama, as we’ve seen a lot of chalk advance and haven’t had many buzzer-beaters. The game between Arkansas and Texas Tech did not lack drama at all, as a spot in the Elite Eight came down to overtime between the No. 10 seed Razorbacks and the No. 3 seed Red Raiders.
While both teams were out there laying it all on the line in an action-packed five-minute period, Florida was enjoying the spoils of a 16-point win over Maryland in which Todd Golden was able to spread out the playing time a little bit in the final minutes. That being said, Alex Condon did suffer an ankle injury and was clearly hobbled, as the injury limited him to just 14 minutes. Condon averages about 11 points and nearly eight rebounds per game. He’s an integral piece to what the Gators do offensively and defensively and the game really shifted in the first half when he went out.
Still, Florida persevered and did what they needed to do. Golden has time to adjust if Condon is at less than full strength for Saturday’s game against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders certainly rode a high on Thursday night, but how much will be left in the tank for Saturday night? Texas Tech erased an 11-point deficit over the final 4:22 of regulation and outlasted the Razorbacks 13-11 in the overtime period, as Darrion Williams hit the game-winning layup with seven seconds left.
Texas Tech has an important injury to monitor here as well, as Chance McMillian, who averages over 14 points per game and is an 88% free throw shooter, missed his fourth straight game. He left after 13 minutes in the Big 12 Tournament against Baylor. We’ll see if he can find his way back into the lineup, as Bart Torvik had him as the Red Raiders’ most valuable overall player.
Statistically, this game has the feeling of a mismatch. Florida is a top-15 team in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, while Texas Tech is a top-10 offensive unit, but more like a top-35 defensive unit. Florida is one of the nation’s top defensive teams in both 3P% and 2P%, but they are also an efficient offensive squad shooting from both areas. In terms of national ranks, Texas Tech is solid in all four areas. In terms of teams that are left standing in the NCAA Tournament, the Red Raiders’ profile is one of the weaker ones.
We have an interesting contrast of pace in this game, but more importantly, an interesting contrast of styles. Both teams take about the same rate of 3-pointers, but Florida is far more active when it comes to taking shots at the rim. Florida’s Rim & 3 Rate is over 82%, while Texas Tech’s is down around 74%, as they’ll take more mid-range jumpers, something Golden will be just fine with in this head-to-head battle.
Estimated Score: Florida 82, Texas Tech 76
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