Florida vs. Auburn March Madness Preview and Prediction
In a No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Final Four, the Florida Gators take on the Auburn Tigers for a spot in the championship.
Make VSiN your home for the duration of the NCAA Tournament and beyond. Take advantage of our college basketball betting tools and previews and predictions on every single March Madness game. We have College Basketball Betting Splits from DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa Sports, updated Vegas College Basketball Odds, College Basketball Odds from other states, College Basketball Matchup Data, and more.
Check out Greg Peterson’s Daily College Basketball Lines, Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings Lines, and look at College Basketball Picks from our VSiN Experts.
How to Watch Florida vs. Auburn
When: 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 5th
Where: Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas
Watch: CBS
Odds for Florida vs. Auburn
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Florida -2.5 (-110), Auburn +2.5 (-110)
Total: Over 161.5 (-110), Over 161.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Florida vs. Auburn Matchup Page
Florida vs. Auburn Preview & Prediction
In what has been the chalkiest NCAA Tournament in history, all four No. 1 seeds make up the Final Four. Florida and Auburn will play in the first of two games at the Alamodome on April 5, as the winner gets the victor of Houston vs. Duke.
While the other Final Four matchup features a big contrast of styles, there are a lot of similarities between the Gators and Tigers. Both teams have fairly similar Rim & 3 Rates, as Florida does check in a bit higher at over 82%, while Auburn is around 77%. The two teams are identical in 3P% defense at 29.6% in games against Division I opponents and Florida is a little bit better at defending 2s, but we’re talking about a very small difference of 0.4%. And, while Florida is 0.5% better at shooting 2s, Auburn is 0.4% better at shooting 3s. All of these stats lined up side-by-side per Bart Torvik’s game preview page sure do make it look like it will be a toss-up type of game.
With the size of the SEC, we only have one head-to-head data point, a 90-81 win by Florida on the road at Auburn. Auburn’s biggest lead was six points and Florida’s biggest lead was 21, as the final score is really not indicative of how most of the second half was played. The Tigers left some points out there, going just 14-of-23 at the free throw line and 15-of-30 on shot attempts at the rim. Florida took 11 more 3s and made six more, which was a big difference in the game. Auburn did have two players with six offensive rebounds (Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell), while Florida only had 11 total ORebs as a team.
After most of the NCAA Tournament dust has settled, Torvik has Auburn ranked ahead of Florida by one spot, while KenPom has the two teams flipped, with Florida No. 3 and Auburn No. 4. For two teams tied in eFG% offense and separated by just 0.3% in eFG% defense, we really are just splitting hairs for the most part.
The Tigers have held three of their four NCAA Tournament foes to well under 1.000 points per possession. Florida has only been held under that once this season and it was against Tennessee on Feb. 1 with .692 PPP. Otherwise, the closest that they came was scoring 1.036 against Arkansas on Jan. 11. So far in the Big Dance, they’ve scored 1.436, 1.161, 1.223, and 1.183 PPP.
Meanwhile, Auburn has scored 1.135, 1.205, 1.033, and 1.052 in their four games. Florida has held just one of their four opponents under 1.000 PPP. So, I guess this will put the old adage to the test… Does defense win championships or will the offense that seems to be in better form punch a ticket to the title game on Monday?
Estimated Score: Florida 80.1, Auburn 79.8
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
