Houston vs. Duke March Madness Preview and Prediction
In a No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Final Four, the Houston Cougars take on the Duke Blue Devils for a spot in the championship.
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How to Watch Houston vs. Duke
When: 8:49 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 5th
Where: Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas
Watch: CBS
Odds for Houston vs. Duke
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Duke -4.5 (-115), Houston +4.5 (-105)
Total: Over 136.5 (-110), Over 136.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Houston vs. Duke Matchup Page
Houston vs. Duke Preview & Prediction
Houston and Duke dominated their opponents in the Elite Eight. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars earned a 69-50 win over a tough Tennessee team, and Jon Scheyer’s group won 85-65 against an explosive Alabama squad. Now, we’re set for a meeting between two absolute powerhouses, so we’re in for a treat in San Antonio.
It’ll be interesting to see what the atmosphere is like at the Alamodome. Houston is only three or so hours away from San Antonio, so Cougars fans will have a pretty manageable trip over if they want to support the squad. There’s also surely some Houston fans in the area to begin with. However, Duke’s fanbase travels as well as any in the country. So, it’s probably not a good idea to assume the Cougars will have a true home-court advantage here. In the end, this could be more of a 60-40 split that favors Houston. Helpful? Sure. But something to heavily bake into the handicap? Probably not.
Duke is the betting favorite here, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. The Blue Devils are first in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, and the same is true of EvanMiya’s. Duke is also the top-ranked team in our very own VSiN Power Ratings. Jon Scheyer’s team is inside the Top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, has the best player in the nation in Cooper Flagg and has all sorts of reliable players filling out the rest of the rotation. Honestly, in terms of pure roster construction, it’s hard to top what Scheyer has built in Durham. However, Houston is the top-ranked team in Bart Torvik’s efficiency rankings, and the Cougars are built to disrupt. They’re the No. 1 defensive team in the nation across all the previously mentioned college basketball resources, and they’re well-coached, talented and experienced. So, if you’re looking to back Duke, I get it. But don’t undersell this Houston team. The Cougars can win this game.
Both of these teams play at extremely slow paces, which is something to keep in mind when thinking about the total. However, it’s also important when looking at how this game might be played. The Cougars are 360th in the nation in adjusted tempo, and the Blue Devils are 271st in that regard. So, given these are also two of the top-five defensive teams in the country, it’s going to be hard for everybody involved in this game to create offense. That alone makes it hard to say Duke is the easy pick to win this one. Adding in the fact that the Cougars are third in the nation in 3PT% (39.7%) and 13th in 3PT% defense (30.1%) only makes Houston look a little better.
Houston also happens to have some guys that can give Flagg some problems. Joseph Tugler is the one that comes to mind. He’s one of the best wing defenders in college basketball, and he’s also playing in a scheme that really shrinks the court. Well, if Flagg doesn’t go wild here, and Duke’s 3-point shooters can’t find the mark against a Houston team that does a great job of defending the 3-point line, everything could come crashing down for this Blue Devils squad.
it also isn’t outrageous to say that Houston has Duke beat when it comes to individual offensive creation. Flagg is tremendous at that for Duke, and Tyrese Proctor can also be a handful in isolation. But the Cougars have three guards, L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan, that will all be able to confidently go out and do some damage. Even Terrance Arceneaux can provide some of that off the bench. So, if this turns into a half-court war, with the defenses stealing the show, this could come down to which team has more reliable bucket-getters late. Outside of Flagg, the best ones in this game might all be wearing red. For as talented as the Blue Devils are, a lot of their players, including Kon Knueppel and Sion James, need offense created for them.
Sampson’s experience in the tournament should also be huge for Houston. While Sampson has never won a championship before, he’s been to the Final Four twice. That should give him an edge over Scheyer, who is experiencing all of this for the first time. Scheyer is tremendous when it comes to X’s and O’s, and his team is motivated and plays the right way. So, in many ways, he’s flawless as a head coach. But even elite head coaches take their lumps in March before triumphing.
Factoring in everything there is to account for in this game, it’s hard not to like the idea of taking the points. And for total bettors, the Under looks like an intriguing option when considering the pace of play and the kind of 3-point defense we’ll see from both teams — and the fact that Houston is 15-9 to the Under in the tournament under Sampson. But this is genuinely a clash between two college basketball juggernauts, and both teams have the ability to put together some insane stretches of basketball. That makes this one of the toughest games to call of the entire tournament.
Estimated Score: Duke 70, Houston 66
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
