NC State vs. Purdue March Madness Preview and Prediction

In a No. 11 vs. No. 1 matchup in the NCAA Tournament between the South Region and Midwest Region champions, the NC State Wolfpack face the Purdue Boilermakers in Final Four action.

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How to Watch NC State vs. Purdue

When: 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 6th

Where: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ

Watch: TBS

Odds for NC State vs. Purdue

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: Purdue -9

Total: 146

DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | NC State vs. Purdue Matchup

South Region No. 11 NC State

NC State shocked the world in winning the ACC tournament, beating Duke in the quarterfinals and North Carolina in the championship game. The Wolfpack are a tricky team to play against, as DJ Burns Jr. is a massive body that throws his weight around near the rim. And DJ Horne is an explosive scorer at the guard position, while Mohamed Diarra is a physical big that does the dirty work. Overall, there’s no denying that NC State has some talent, and Kevin Keatts is a smart head coach. NC State has backed the ACC tournament title up with wins over Texas Tech, Oakland, Marquette, and DUke.

Midwest Region No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers

Everybody is quick to get their jokes off about Purdue, as last year’s Boilermakers became the second team in NCAA tournament history to lose a 1-16 game. But Purdue has proven that they deserved to be taken very seriously in this tournament. The Boilermakers still have 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, the best player in college basketball. And Purdue has snipers surrounding him, as the Boilermakers are first in the nation when it comes to 3P% this season. Matt Painter finally made it to the Final Four and this looks to be his best team yet, as this Boilermakers team is loaded and plays the right way on both ends of the floor. And Purdue is coming off very impressive wins over a very good Gonzaga team and a strong Tennessee team.

NC State vs. Purdue Preview & Prediction

What a difference a few weeks makes. NC State head coach Kevin Keatts seemed to be on a very hot seat and an early-ish exit in the ACC Tournament might have signaled the end. Instead, his team rides a nine-game winning streak into the Final Four against Purdue.

Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter wasn’t on a hot seat, per se, but he had failed to make deep NCAA Tournament runs with some really good teams in the past before getting this one over the hump and into the National Semifinals. It certainly helps to have 7-foot-4 Zach Edey, but Painter had the luxury of Edey last season and lost to 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

This is such an interesting matchup. Purdue has been among the top five teams in the nation throughout most of the season. Bart Torvik just put North Carolina State in the top 50 with the win over Duke in the Elite Eight. This is about as unlikely as it gets for a Final Four team, although, last year’s Big Dance showed us that anything is possible. The Wolfpack have done just enough on offense and just enough on defense to get to this point and their last two opponents have gone 9-of-51 from 3 to help the cause.

You do have to wonder when the chickens will come home to roost and maybe it will happen here, as Edey dropped a 40-burger on Tennessee and NC State will be at a disadvantage on the interior, just like the other teams that Purdue has faced. DJ Burns Jr. has had a masterful tournament, but he’s 6-foot-9 and Mohamed Diarra and Ben Middlebrooks stand 6-foot-10.

Neither team has had any luck forcing turnovers in the tourney, as Purdue has had TO% on defense of 9.8%, 10.8%, 10.2%, and 10.5% over four games, but their offensive efficiency has really carried them through. NC State’s TO% by game have been 14.9%, 10.1%, 13.1%, and 13.2%. It could be tough sledding for NC State to keep up in massive State Farm Stadium given that their interior presence will be limited because of Edey and they’ve shot 26-of-75 (34.7%) from 3 while being able to achieve some offensive balance. They may not get that here.

Estimated Score: Purdue 78, NC State 68

For expert predictions, check out our college basketball best bets page.

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