Houston vs. Tennessee March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Houston Cougars take on the Tennessee Volunteers in Elite Eight action.
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How to Watch Houston vs. Tennessee
When: 2:20 pm ET on Sunday, March 30th
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
Watch: CBS
Odds for Houston vs. Tennessee
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Houston -4.5 (-102), Tennessee +4.5 (-118)
Total: Over 122.5 (-110), Over 122.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Houston vs. Tennessee Matchup Page
Houston vs. Tennessee Preview & Prediction
The general thinking when BYU and Alabama met in the Sweet 16 was that the total for that game couldn’t possibly be set high enough, and those two high-octane teams combined to score 201 points. Well, this game feels like the opposite of that one. The total here feels like it couldn’t possibly be set low enough. While both of these teams are strong when it comes to Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency, both teams play insanely slow. Tennessee is 345th in the nation in adjusted tempo while Houston is 360th. The Cougars are also the top-ranked team in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Volunteers are third.
The Under is also 10-8 in the 18 NCAA Tournament games that Tennessee has played with Rick Barnes on the sidelines, and it’s also 14-9 in the NCAA Tournament games that Houston has played under Kelvin Sampson. With that in mind, you’re welcome to go Over on this insanely low total. But doing so would make you bolder than most.
As far as the side goes, it’s hard not to see a clear edge for Houston. Look, both of these teams can defend their butts off, but the Cougars have more firepower than the Vols. This year, Houston leads college basketball in 3PT%, shooting 39.8% from deep. This Cougars team doesn’t exactly gun them up, but they have several guards that can really knock down 3s. Meanwhile, the Vols are just 151st in the nation in 3PT% (34.3%), and the battle from behind the 3-point line could decide this one.
Ultimately, Houston should be able to win this game if the team can just contain Zakai Zeigler when it comes to generating paint touches. The Cougars will also need to make sure they don’t leave Chaz Lanier one too many times. Lanier has been awesome as a Dalton Knecht replacement this year.
Houston also needs to battle for defensive rebounds. The Cougars are just 115th in the country in defensive rebound rate, but the Volunteers are 20th in offensive rebound rate. Well, one way Tennessee can make up for having a tough offensive day is by getting a bunch of second chances. The Cougars need to make sure they take those away.
It does, however, feel like Houston could be due for a bit of an eruption in the Elite Eight. Tennessee just put a lot into beating a Kentucky team that it was 0-2 against in the regular season, and the Vols might be in for a bit of an emotional letdown here — even in a game as big as this one. But the Cougars just played a little worse than expected against Purdue, which essentially had a home game playing inside Lucas Oil Stadium. Now, with more of a split crowd, we might see Houston get out some pent-up anger.
Keep an eye on L.J. Cryer here. The former Baylor guard was miserable in the Sweet 16, finishing with five points on 2 for 13 shooting from the floor and 1 for 5 shooting from 3. Better days are surely ahead for a guard that was third in the Big 12 in Offensive BPM this year. And overall, you just shouldn’t be surprised if Houston’s loaded backcourt gets the better of Tennessee’s in this game.
It’s also hard not to point out Barnes’ recent failures at this stage of the tournament. Barnes hasn’t been to a Final Four since he was the head coach of Texas in 2002-03. Also, as the coach of Tennessee, the Volunteers are just 7-11 against the spread in NCAA Tournament games.
Estimated Score: Houston 63.1, Tennessee 60.1
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
