Houston vs. Purdue March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Houston Cougars take on the Purdue Boilermakers in Sweet 16 action.
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How to Watch Houston vs. Purdue
When: 10:09 p.m. ET on Friday, March 28th
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana
Watch: TBS
Odds for Houston vs. Purdue
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Houston -7.5 (-118), Purdue +7.5 (-102)
Total: Over 131.5 (-110), Under 131.5 (-110)
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Houston vs. Purdue Preview & Prediction
Purdue beat up on McNeese in the second round of the tournament, while Houston had to scratch and claw to hang on for a win against an under-seeded Gonzaga team. Now, these two awesome programs will clash at Lucas Oil Stadium. The venue is important in this one. This could end up being a home atmosphere for the Boilermakers, as West Lafayette is only an hour away. However, when looking at the advantages for Purdue in this game, it feels like it stops there.
I won’t push back too hard on anybody that says Braden Smith will be the best guard on the floor. I absolutely love watching the Purdue guard go to work, as he’s a wizard when it comes to setting up his teammates. He’s also a good scorer himself. However, Houston has bunch of guards that can play with him, and the Cougars also have one of the best defensive backcourts in the nation. So, Houston should be able to neutralize him a bit, making it hard on the Boilermakers to create offense. That’s especially true with the Cougars having multiple wings that can potentially take Trey Kaufman-Renn out of this game.
I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Purdue getting a little hot to start the game, as the Boilermakers might feed off the energy of the crowd. However, Houston is a top-25 team in both 2PT% defense (44.3%) and 3PT% defense (30.6%). The latter is the important one here. Purdue’s offense is ninth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, and a lot of that has to do with the 3-ball. But I just don’t see Kelvin Sampson’s team giving up a lot of good looks. Also, this is the worst year imaginable for Matt Painter’s team to be missing a giant in the middle. Having a seven-footer might have been a good way to exploit a Houston team that is a little undersized in the frontcourt, but Daniel Jacobsen’s injury looms large here. Now, the Cougars are playing a team that is similar in size, but worse at pretty much every important part of the game.
This just should be a game in which Houston eventually finds a way to start mugging Purdue. And that’s especially true after a lousy second half against Gonzaga. Sampson is going to rip into his players and have them ready to run through a wall in this Sweet 16 matchup.
It’s also hard to worry too much about the Cougars scoring here. Houston is actually better when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency than it has ever been under Sampson. This team just has some awesome guards, as Milos Uzan, L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp are all excellent. Also, every player Sampson brings off the bench is highly talented and ready to rock. Look for the Houston guards to relentlessly attack the basket in this one, looking to take advantage of a Purdue team that is 341st in the nation in 2PT% defense (56.2%). The guards will either get themselves buckets, draw fouls or find some of the forwards that can finish above the rim. And if the Boilermakers have to overplay the drive to account for that, the Cougars will light them up from 3. Houston is the best 3-point shooting team (39.8%) in college basketball. And once the 3s start falling, the Cougars can roll teams. They’re always a threat to break a game open with a 10-point run.
The total is actually really interesting here. While these are two top-10 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency, as well as two teams that can really shoot the 3, these are two teams that play very slow. The Cougars are 360th in the nation in adjusted tempo. The Boilermakers are 298th. Well, when teams are playing that slow, it’s hard for games to go Over. It would take a strong shooting performance from both squads.
Estimated Score: Houston 69.5, Purdue 62.1
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