Utah State vs. UCLA March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 10 vs. No. 7 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Utah State Aggies face the UCLA Bruins in first-round action.
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How to Watch Utah State vs. UCLA
When: 9:25 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 20th
Where: Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky
Watch: TNT
Odds for Utah State vs. UCLA
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: UCLA -4.5 (-110), Utah State +4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 143.5 (-115), Under 143.5 (-105)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Utah State vs. UCLA Matchup Page
Utah State vs. UCLA Preview & Prediction
UCLA enters the tournament as a potentially under-seeded team after a midseason slump caused by Big Ten travel adjustments. The Bruins had just one stretch of consecutive losses, including tough road games at Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers, but otherwise performed well in their first year outside the Pac-12. Mick Cronin’s squad finished top-four in the Big Ten in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, with a strong defensive identity and a disciplined offense.
Shooting efficiency has been a key strength, though UCLA rarely attacks the rim, ranking 357th in Close Two shot share. Instead, they rely on mid-range jumpers, which is an area of defensive weakness for Utah State. The Bruins also excel at forcing turnovers, a critical asset in this matchup. Despite a soft non-conference schedule, they own quality wins over Gonzaga and Arizona and are battle-tested in March, with Cronin having led them to a Final Four and multiple Sweet 16s.
Utah State, meanwhile, continues its strong program tradition under first-year coach Jerrod Calhoun, making its third straight NCAA Tournament appearance. The Aggies boast a top-20 offense, ranking highly in 2P% and offensive efficiency, and are aggressive on the glass. However, they have defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in rebounding, free throw rate, and interior defense, ranking in the 200s in those categories.
Both teams force opponents into a high number of 3-pointers, and Utah State plays at a faster pace that could challenge the Bruins with an 88% Rim & 3 Rate, compared to UCLA’s 65.3%. The Aggies also rely heavily on ball movement, ranking top 20 in assist rate. However, they allow a high volume of 3s and struggle in contested shot defense, making them a high-variance team.
This game will likely come down to shot-making, as both teams force turnovers but also have defensive weaknesses. Utah State’s ability to exploit UCLA’s mid-range-heavy approach – or UCLA’s ability to disrupt the Aggies’ rhythm – could decide the outcome. With Tennessee looming in the second round, how deep of a run is possible for the winner of this one?
Estimated Score: UCLA 74, Utah State 70
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