Xavier vs. Illinois March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 11 vs. No. 6 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Xavier Musketeers face the Illinois Fighting Illini in first-round action.
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How to Watch Xavier vs. Illinois
When: 9:45 p.m. ET on Friday, March 21st
Where: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Watch: CBS
Odds for Xavier vs. Illinois
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Illinois -3.5 (-110), Xavier +3.5 (-110)
Total: Over 158.5 (-110), Under 158.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Xavier vs. Illinois Matchup Page
Xavier vs. Illinois Preview & Prediction
Xavier was down as many as 13 in a meeting with Texas in the First Four, and the Musketeers also trailed by 10 with about 12 minutes to go. But Sean Miller’s team never gave up. The Musketeers kept grinding and they ultimately took control of the game with about five minutes to go. John Hugley IV hit a big triple with 5:07 left. That shot really felt like it changed the momentum of the game. Then, when the Longhorns tied things up at 78-78, Zach Freemantle knocked down a jumper to give Xavier an 80-78 lead with 1:48 left. The Musketeers led the rest of the way.
It’s going to be interesting to see how Xavier looks against Illinois. The Fighting Illini are 23rd in Bart Torvik’s efficiency rankings this season. The Musketeers are just 37th in the nation. However, that’s focusing on a season-long sample. Since February 1st, Xavier is 26th in Torvik’s efficiency rankings. Illinois is down in 40th. The reason for that is Illinois has come unglued defensively. The Illini have a defensive rating of 106.2 since February, and that’s not even a top-150 mark in the nation in that span. That makes it hard not to give Xavier a decent shot.
While the Illini have a little more firepower than the Musketeers, Xavier is plenty capable of scoring on this Illinois defense. The Illini aren’t particularly great when it comes to defending around the basket, meaning Freemantle could get himself going offensively after getting into some foul trouble against the Longhorns. Also, since the start of February, Illinois is 359th out of 364 teams when it comes to 3PT% defense (41.7%). This team can’t defend the 3-point line, so it’s entirely possible the Musketeers are going to torch them. Since February 1st, Xavier is shooting 40.0% from deep. Only 18 teams in the country are shooting it better. So, while the Musketeers don’t take a ton of 3s, they should be able to capitalize on open looks.
Xavier is also decent enough defensively to come up with some stops when things get very tight. If anything, Xavier’s biggest weakness defensively coming into this game is guarding the 3-point line. Well, Illinois is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in college basketball. The Illini are shooting just 31.1% from 3 on the season, which is wild considering they’re 41st in the nation in 3-point rate (46.9%). Illinois runs an extremely modern offense that prioritizes setting up the right types of shots, but the team hasn’t buried them all year. So, the Musketeers could get off easy there.
It’s also worth noting that Miller is 82-48 straight-up in neutral-court games throughout his career. He’s also 22-12 SU and 19-13-2 ATS in March Madness, despite having a reputation as a bad postseason coach.
As always, ignoring the sides and playing the total is an option here. If you’re doing that, it’s important to remember Xavier has been a top-25 offensive team since the start of February, and Illinois has been one all season. The Illini are also hard to trust defensively, yet they play at the 18th-fastest tempo in basketball. So, it isn’t out of the question that this will turn into a shootout. Xavier is also 9-7 to the Over when playing away from home this season.
Estimated Score: Coming soon.
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
