Tennessee vs. Kentucky March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 2 vs. No. 3 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Tennessee Volunteers take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Sweet 16 action.
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How to Watch Tennessee vs. Kentucky
When: 7:39 pm ET on Friday, March 28th
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
Watch: TBS
Odds for Tennessee vs. Kentucky
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Tennessee -4.5 (-110), Kentucky +4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 146.5 (-110), Under 146.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Tennessee vs. Kentucky Matchup Page
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Preview & Prediction
With 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament, it was inevitable that two SEC squads would run into each other at some point. As it turns out, Tennessee and Kentucky are the first ones that will battle with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line. Handicapping NCAA Tournament games can be a challenge because you go from several months of conference play to going up against opponents that you have not faced with different talent levels and different styles of play.
Here, though, we have two head-to-head meetings to pull from, both wins for Kentucky. The Wildcats won 78-73 in Knoxville on Jan. 28 and 75-64 in Lexington on Feb. 11. In those two games, Kentucky had tremendous success on offense, racking up 1.169 and 1.175 points per possession in the matchups. The Wildcats were 12-of-24 from 3 in both games, while Tenesssee was 11-of-45 from 3 in the first one and 3-of-18 in the second one.
What stands out the most about those two performances is that Kentucky’s 2-point defense has been in the spotlight all season long, but Tennessee didn’t exploit it. The Wildcats are a top-25 team in 3P% defense, but they rank in the 280s in 2P%. The Volunteers were unable to take advantage, settling for way too many 3-point attempts in the first game and didn’t make enough 3s in the second game. Tennessee was 20-of-36 on 2-point shots in the rematch, but got outscored 27-9 from 3 and that was the difference in the game.
So, it’s fair to wonder what will go differently in the third meeting, given that Kentucky has seemingly had the upper hand. The games were played to 67 and 64 possessions, so Tennessee was closer to the pace that they wanted, but still couldn’t capitalize. Both teams have similar shot selection metrics, but Kentucky has definitely been a better offense throughout the course of the season. Tennessee has been the better defense, especially with a 28.3% 3P% against, but Kentucky has cracked that code to shoot 50% from deep in both games.
You absolutely have to wonder if Kentucky will find as much success from deep in the Sweet 16, though, as this game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the home of the Colts. That is a much deeper shooting backdrop and something that could benefit the Volunteers, especially if they can take advantage of Kentucky’s lackluster interior defense.
Estimated Score: Tennessee 74, Kentucky 70
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
