UCLA vs. Tennessee March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 7 vs. No. 2 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the UCLA Bruins face the Tennessee Volunteers in second-round action.
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How to Watch UCLA vs. Tennessee
When: 9:45 pm ET on Saturday, March 22nd
Where: Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky
Watch: TBS / truTV
Odds for UCLA vs. Tennessee
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Tennessee -5.5 (-110), UCLA +5.5 (-110)
Total: Over 131.5 (-110), Under 131.5 (-110)
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UCLA vs. Tennessee Preview & Prediction
UCLA and Tennessee are both prestigious basketball programs, so it’s somewhat exciting to see these two facing off in the second round of the tournament. However, much of the excitement wears off after seeing their names next to one another on a screen. While both of these teams create offense somewhat efficiently — Bart Torvik has UCLA 27th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and Tennessee is 20th — the defenses will be the star of the show in this one.
This is a battle between two top-20 defensive teams, whether you’re lookin at Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency or KenPom’s defensive rating. On top of that, both programs are outside of the Top 300 in pace of play. This is going to be a slow, slow game, with both teams looking to take their time executing in half-court situations. The winner will come down to who gets a few extra stops, and whether any of these players will get hot enough to carry this thing home.
There’s a reason this total opened at 128.5. And though it was quickly bet up, the oddsmakers know that neither one of these teams can be trusted to go Over the mark. This season, UCLA is actually 17-15-1 to the Under. Meanwhile, Tennessee is 19-16 to the Under. And nothing about playing on a neutral court, in a high-pressure environment, should help either offense out. So, while this number is definitely one of the lowest on the board when looking at second-round matchups, it’s hard to suggest going anywhere but Under.
As far as the side goes, this one feels a little tougher to call. On paper, Tennessee looks a little stronger. Torvik has Tennessee 20th in offense and fourth in defense. UCLA is 27th in offense and 16th in defense. The Vols also might have the best scorer on the floor in Chaz Lanier. He had 29 points against Wofford in the opening round, and he’s the most likely player of anyone to get hot. Zakai Zeigler is also one of the best table-setting point guards in the country. So, offensively, you’d think the Vols will be a little better off here. But it’s a little hard to ignore the fact that Tennessee is just 2-5 against the spread in March. And while there were some big numbers posted by some Vols against the Terriers, Wofford hung around and made that game a lot closer than expected. Meanwhile, UCLA blew out a good Utah State team.
UCLA also has some guys that can make plays. Tennessee’s Lanier and Zeigler might be the most notable in the game, but Tyler Bilodeau is the type of offensive piece every team wants. Mick Cronin’s team is also six deep with guys that can make plays, and some of the guards are explosive.
Don’t be surprised if Kobe Johnson is an X-factor in this game. Johnson’s offensive game isn’t particularly pretty, but he stuffs the stat sheet as a 6-foot-6 wing that can rebound, pass and make plays with his athleticism. He’s also one of the best defensive players in the Big Ten, so he’s going to be excited about matching up with Lanier.
Realistically, in a game with a total this low, it’s hard not to see some value in an underdog getting 5.5. And that feels especially true when thinking about a Rick Barnes-led Tennessee team. Barnes hasn’t been to a Final Four since 2002-03, and it’s wild when you consider the type of talent he has been working with. Every year, we want to believe that things will be different, and Barnes has had better offenses than usual in each of the last two years. However, that shaky performance in the first round didn’t do anything to ease the tension. And Cronin, while he has had his issues in Westwood, is a good tournament coach. He took the Bruins to the Final Four in 2020-21, and he’ll look for everything he can to try and bring out some of the Vols’ worst tendencies.
Estimated Score: Tennessee 67, UCLA 63
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