No. 13 Vermont vs. No. 4 Duke: NCAA Tournament South Region March Madness Preview and Prediction

Vermont vs. Duke March Madness Preview and Prediction

In the No. 13 vs. No. 4 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the Vermont Catamounts face the Duke Blue Devils in first-round action.

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How to Watch Vermont vs. Duke

When: 7:10 pm ET on Friday, March 22nd

Where: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York

Watch: CBS

Odds for Vermont vs. Duke

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: Duke -11.5

Total: 131.5

DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Vermont vs. Duke Matchup

South Region No. 13 Vermont Catamounts

Vermont is a borderline top-50 team when it comes to adjusted defensive efficiency, and the Catamounts work diligently to defend the 3-point line. Doing that at a high level helps prevent Vermont from getting blown out. The team is also very good on the defensive glass, so the Catamounts won’t give up many second-chance opportunities. The question with Vermont is whether the 3-point shot will be there or not. The Catamounts launch them with regularity, but they can run a little hot and cold from deep. Also, while Vermont works hard on the glass, the team is a little undersized. So, opponents with bigs that can score around the basket can be a problem.

South Region No. 4 Duke Blue Devils

Duke still has a lot to prove under head coach Jon Scheyer, and the Blue Devils enter March Madness after a disappointing loss to NC State in the ACC tournament. But Duke was a very good team for most of the regular season, posting elite numbers when it comes to points per possession on offense and very good marks on defense. The Blue Devils have a remarkable big man in Kyle Filipowski, who is capable of beating defenses in a number of different ways. And Duke can match anybody when it comes to guard play, as Jared McCain, Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach make up a legitimate three-headed monster in the backcourt. So, this team is going to be very dangerous in the tournament. Scheyer just has to push the right buttons, which is something he has never done before.

Vermont vs. Duke Preview & Prediction

Let me preface this by saying that I am not a Duke hater, but I am rooting for Vermont here. This is the 13th season for head coach John Becker and his sixth NCAA Tournament appearance. The Catamounts only have one win and it came in Dayton against Lamar in the First Four. Otherwise, they’ve lost to North Carolina, Purdue, Florida State, Arkansas, and Marquette.

We have strength vs. strength here, as Vermont ranked as a top-25 team in eFG% and Duke is definitely an offense-first type of squad. They were a top-15 offense from 3-point land and a top-40 offense on 2-point shots. Vermont just doesn’t get challenged a whole lot in the America East Conference and they wind up struggling with more talented bigs in the NCAA Tournament.

Maybe if they forced more turnovers or shot better from 3, it would feel like more of a reality to see them knock off a major-conference opponent. In fact, this is one of Becker’s lesser 3-point shooting teams and this one also has the lowest TO% of his tenure. Those aren’t really recipes for upsetting a team like Duke.

The Blue Devils do have a knack for playing down to opponents in these early-round games, but that wasn’t the case in Jon Scheyer’s first year last season with the 23-point win over Oral Roberts. I can’t help but feel like we’re more likely to see a repeat of that here before a much tougher game in the second round.

Estimated Score: Duke 72, Vermont 60

For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.