Nebraska vs. Michigan
The agonizing two-week period prior to Super Bowl LX has kicked off with a lot of shots at the strength of schedule played by the Patriots. Well, that same theory seems to apply to college basketball on Tuesday night because a 20-0 Nebraska Cornhuskers team is a double-digit underdog against the Michigan Wolverines. Twenty straight wins is 20 straight wins any way you slice it, but this Nebraska vs. Michigan game shows how oddsmakers and bettors account for the quality of opponent.
It doesn’t hurt that Michigan, who has played the second-toughest schedule per Bart Torvik and seventh-toughest per KenPom, owns Quadrant 1 wins by 4, 40, 30, 40, and 10 points in the five qualifying games that they’ve played. Will they add another blowout victory to that list against Nebraska?
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of January 26, 7:15 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Nebraska vs. Michigan (-10.5, 154.5)
7 p.m. ET (Peacock)
For those of you not sure if you want to purchase Peacock to watch this one, not only can you get a top-five college basketball game on your TV, but I’d also recommend The Copenhagen Test, The Hunting Party, and my wife’s personal favorite show of all-time, Parks and Recreation. Of course, that’ll be something for you to watch during the day or after football season or some other time, but it is a quality streaming platform.
Nevertheless, you’re here about this game and it should be a fascinating one. As mentioned, Michigan has had no issues pummeling quality opponents and here’s the wild part – all of those games were in road or neutral settings. Michigan beat TCU in Fort Worth and Washington in Seattle while beating San Diego State, Auburn, and Gonzaga right before Thanksgiving in the first-ever Players Era Festival right here in Las Vegas. They scored 297 points in those three games and only allowed 193.
Nebraska is 6-0 in Quadrant 1 games, with five of them as part of their 7-0 start in Big Ten play. That unblemished run includes a road win at Illinois and a home win against Michigan State in two Q1-A games against top-10 teams per the rankings sites. The game against the Spartans was an outlier, ending 58-56, as they’ve scored at least 72 points in each of their other Q1 matchups.
Michigan leads the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency per Torvik and sits second in KenPom’s list. Opponents are only shooting 41.1% on 2s and just 30.2% on 3s against the Wolverines defense. Dusty May’s squad is also one of the best in the nation at preventing shot attempts at the rim, but that isn’t really a focal point of the Cornhuskers offense. They are shooting 71.9% on Close Twos, but their shot share on Close Twos is just 32.9%.
Nebraska is also very stingy when it comes to allowing opponents to get close to the rim, holding them to a 23.8% shot share on those high-percentage looks. Haslametrics has a stat called Proximity, which is a measure of the average distance of shots taken. Defensively, Nebraska has the No. 2 proximity in the nation, while Michigan is 12th. That means we’re likely to see a lot of jump shots in this game, possibly adding to the degree of variance.
Nebraska’s upset bid will rest on the shoulders of Pryce Sandfort and Rienk Mast, who average 17.3 and 14.6 PPG, respectively. Mast is also among the team’s rebounders alongside Berke Buyuktuncel, who leads the team in blocked shots. Like Nebraska, Michigan has four players in double figures, led by standout transfer Yaxel Lendeborg (14.4 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and Morez Johnson Jr. (13.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG). Monster of the middle Aday Mara is sixth in the nation in blocks per game with his 7-foot-3 frame.
Nebraska vs. Michigan Prediction
One other angle to watch in this game is the pace war. Michigan is 11th in adjusted tempo per KenPom and Nebraska is 204th. Michigan’s staggering efficiency numbers work in their favor with the heightened tempo because they have an advantage on each end of the floor on every possession. That’s the recipe for blowouts. Nebraska is good, and they’ve been good stepping up in class, but they did play the 298th-ranked non-conference schedule per KenPom and this is the type of game where it will show up. Michigan is 53rd in free throw rate and 46th in ORB% per Torvik, while Nebraska is 329th in FT Rate and 302nd in ORB%.
Pick: Michigan -10.5
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