Nebraska vs. Troy Prediction
In the No. 4 vs. No. 13 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, Nebraska vs. Troy is the first-round game on Thursday, March 19 with a trip to second round on the line.
Make VSiN your home for the duration of the NCAA Tournament and beyond. Take advantage of our college basketball betting tools and previews and predictions on every single March Madness game. We have College Basketball Betting Splits from DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa Sports, updated Vegas College Basketball Odds, College Basketball Odds from other states, College Basketball Matchup Data, and more.
Check out Greg Peterson’s Daily College Basketball Lines, Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings Lines, and look at College Basketball Picks from our VSiN Experts.
See all of our game previews and predictions in our March Madness Betting Hub.
Sign up for the FREE March Betting Challenge sponsored by ProphetX and EdgeBoost and/or the $1 Million High Stakes Survivor Madness presented by Splash Sports.
How to Watch Nebraska vs. Troy
When: 12:40 pm ET on Thursday, March 19th
Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK
Watch: TruTV
Odds for Nebraska vs. Troy
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Nebraska -13.5 (-118), Troy +13.5 (-102)
Total: Over 136.5 (-105), Under 136.5 (-115)
Nebraska vs. Troy Prediction & Preview
There is a statistic that has followed Nebraska basketball like a dark cloud for decades: the Cornhuskers are 0-8 in the NCAA Tournament and the only power conference school without a single win in the Big Dance. The seed lines tell part of the story — 8, 14, 9, 7, 11, 6, 6, and 9 — but this year’s team is well above any of those, and the narrative finally feels ready to change. This has been a magical season in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers started 20-0, built on a roster almost entirely different from last year’s team that won 21 games total and captured the inaugural College Basketball Crown. The turnover didn’t slow them down one bit.
Nebraska gets buckets, and they get them efficiently. This has been a top-25 team in 2-point percentage and a top-35 team in eFG% all season, with one of the better offensive turnover rates in the field. The 3-point rate is north of 50%, and while finishing sixth in the Big Ten at 36.7% from deep doesn’t sound like a headline, that figure ranks 66th nationally in conference games — in a league that shoots the ball as well as any in the country. Pair the shot-making with one of the best 3-point defenses in the nation and a +5% turnover differential and suddenly you have a team that can beat you in multiple ways. Nebraska held their own in Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 1-A games in Big Ten play and has scorers up and down the lineup who can generate clean looks inside and out. This is an overlooked team in brackets, and that oversight could be costly for anyone who fades them too quickly.
Troy is back in the Dance for the second consecutive year under Scott Cross, having secured the Sun Belt automatic bid by winning the conference tournament — though the road there included a Georgia Southern team playing its sixth game in six days in the title game. Catching a break is still catching a break, and when six teams finished tied at 11-7 for second in the Sun Belt and not one of them won a tournament game, Troy’s path was as favorable as it could have been. Last year’s team hung with Kentucky for about 15 minutes before ultimately losing by 19, and that was considered the stronger roster. This year’s version has improved from beyond the arc — the Trojans shot just 30.1% from 3 last season and are up to 33.2% this year — but they’re still below the national average from deep while launching at a 45.6% 3-point rate that ranks near the top 50 nationally. That combination of high volume and below-average efficiency from 3 is a difficult offensive model to sustain against quality defenses.
The inside game isn’t a realistic escape hatch either. Troy was among the top 50 in shot share on Close Twos per Bart Torvik, so the intent is there to attack the rim, but the execution against power-conference athleticism and length has been a recurring problem. Last year against Kentucky — one of the worst power-conference teams in 2-point defense — Troy managed just 57 points and 0.833 points per possession. Nebraska’s 3-point defense is among the best in the country, and the Cornhuskers’ turnover differential will create extra possessions that Troy simply cannot afford to give up.
Troy needs an outlier shooting performance to pull off what would be the program’s first Division I postseason win of any kind. Nebraska needs to play like themselves. History suggests the Cornhuskers have been waiting a very long time to do exactly that, and this looks like the right moment to finally get off zero.
Estimated Score: TBD
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
