UNLV Runnin’ Rebels at Princeton Tigers (-2.5, 139)
8 p.m. ET
Handicapping NIT games begins by determining who wants to play in the secondary tournament the least. That could be a toss-up between these two teams.
UNLV made a late-season charge and saw Mountain West Conference tournament games at the Thomas & Mack Center as a way to advance to the NCAA tournament. That vision ended with an overtime loss to San Diego State in the quarterfinals.
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The Tigers also came up short in their conference tournament in disappointing fashion, falling to Brown 90-81. Princeton won the Ivy League regular season title and was on track to earn a second consecutive NCAA tournament bid.
That didn’t happen so Princeton hosts UNLV in the first round of NIT action Wednesday evening.
While the Tigers seemed like the closer of the two teams to making the big tournament, this could be an opportunity to fade UNLV.
Even though Princeton comes out of the Ivy going against a conference that placed six teams into the NCAA tournament, the Tigers are the better squad. Both KenPom (66 v. 71) and bookmakers agree, making Princeton the favorite.
The offensive-minded Tigers rely on guards Xaivian Lee (17.3 ppg) and Matt Allocco (12.9 ppg) along with forward Caden Pierce (16.4 ppg). The UNLV production comes from forward Keylan Boone (12.4 ppg), his brother Kalib Boone (11.1 ppg) and Dedan Thomas Jr. (14.1 ppg) in the backcourt.
The rationale to go against UNLV stems from them traveling across the country to New Jersey for a game they might not be overly motivated to play.
While the same could also be said for Princeton, those suiting up for a Mountain West program have expectations of March games being in the NCAA tournament. Even though the Tigers had NCAA success last year, their expectations and goals for the postseason are different.
Winning NIT games and possibly taking home the title carries more weight for Princeton.
As a senior, Allocco will likely approach these NIT games with the same passion he showed all season. Lee and Pierce are only sophomores, and this game gives the Ivy’s most talented duo more minutes to improve.
The Rebels, on the other hand, will take the floor with the transfer portal wide open, ready to acquire and add new players to UNLV’s future roster. Keylan Boone, now in his third program, is likely focused on his professional opportunities.
This game will be UNLV’s first contest east of the Mountain Time Zone since late November when they were in a Daytona Beach tournament.
Once the Rebels touch down in the Garden State, playing in the unfamiliar setting of Jadwin Gym could take some adjustment time. The lighting and layout of the arena is much different than anything in the Mountain West.
On the court, the Tigers play their customary style of passing and picking while keeping a majority of their possessions for nearly 20 seconds.
The Rebels played similar offenses this season and did not fare well. UNLV lost 82-65 to Richmond (without Keylan Boone), 69-67 to Saint Mary’s and split a pair of games with Air Force.
I am betting against UNLV based on multiple variables: their motivation, travel, venue and the opposition’s style of play. The first half angle of backing Princeton is what I like the most.
Picks: Princeton first half ML – 135 and Princeton game ML -142
