Florida vs. UConn March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, the Florida Gators face the Connecticut Huskies in second-round action.
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How to Watch Florida vs. UConn
When: 12:10 pm ET on Sunday, March 23rd
Where: Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina
Watch: CBS
Odds for Florida vs. UConn
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Florida -8.5 (-110), UConn +8.5 (-110)
Total: Over 151.5 (-110), Under 151.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | UConn vs. Florida Matchup Page
Florida vs. UConn Preview & Prediction
If the Gators are going to cut down the nets, as many expect they will, they’re going to need to go through the two-time defending champions. That’s right, UConn was able to get through an opening-round matchup with ninth-seeded Oklahoma, meaning Dan Hurley’s chase for a three-peat is still alive. However, many will say it’s hanging on by a thread. Florida won the SEC this season, emerging as the best team from a loaded conference. The Gators are third in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, fourth in Bart Torvik’s, third in EvanMiya’s and second in our VSiN Power Ratings. This Florida team is loaded with talent, has unbelievable balance throughout its rotation and has a great coach in Todd Golden.
Golden, the 39-year-old that put himself on the map as the coach of San Francisco, has turned the Gators into a powerhouse. And he has done so by taking an analytical approach. Florida’s shot diet consists of good, easy shots at the basket, plus a heavy dose of open looks from 3. Florida also does a decent job of taking care of the basketball (38th in turnover rate), and the team takes away the right shots on defense. The Gators are sixth in the country in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot only 29.3% from deep. They also do a good job of running opponents off the 3-point line.
Florida just plays a beautiful brand of basketball, and this team is a nightmare of a matchup for anyone. And don’t mistake the analytic-heavy approach for the Gators lacking talent. Walter Clayton Jr. is one of the best guards in college basketball. This rotation is also loaded with other trustworthy contributors, like Alijah Martin, Will Richard and Alex Condon. That last one might actually be the most important player for this Florida team. Condon is good at pretty much everything as a 6-foot-11 big that can score from everywhere, set teammates up and play both ends. Condon is actually 14th in the entire nation in BPM (10.2).
All of that would be intimidating for most teams, but we know UConn isn’t going to back down. This season hasn’t quite gone the way Hurley would have thought, as the Huskies have a 24-10 record entering this one. Of course, a 24-10 record would be awesome for most teams, but Hurley’s UConn team went 31-8 in a championship-winning season in 2022-23 and then followed it up by going 37-3 in last year’s title run. So, there has undoubtedly been a big drop-off from last year to this year. But UConn is still a top-20 team when it comes to offensive efficiency, and the team isn’t going to go down without a fight.
For as good as some things might look for the Gators in this matchup, the Huskies are 15th in the nation in 2PT% and 11th in 2PT% defense. So, there’s a chance UConn is going to do a better job when it comes to all things around the basket. Also, the Huskies do everything they can to run opponents off the 3-point line. Opposing teams are shooting 34.6% from 3 against UConn this season, but the Huskies are 30th in the nation in 3-point rate defense (34.1%). Well, the game plan here will be simple. Hurley is going to want his guys to funnel Florida’s players towards the basket and then hope that his big men can stay vertical and avoid foul trouble.
Realistically, there will be a lot of reasons to like Florida when looking at the team’s resume, strength of schedule and advanced stats profile. But it should be noted that Golden just won his first ever NCAA Tournament game. So, while he is a great coach, he has never coached a game like this one. Hurley has done it a million times. In fact, under Hurley, UConn is 36-15 straight-up and 35-16 against the spread in neutral-court games. The team is also 13-2 both SU and ATS in tournament games under Hurley, and let’s add a perfect 8-0 both SU and ATS versus SEC teams with him on the sidelines. That said, you can doubt this Huskies team at your own peril.
As far as the total goes, the number was quickly bet up after lines were released, and it isn’t too hard to figure out why. This is the nation’s best offensive team going up against another top-15 offense. However, it’s worth knowing that UConn is just 343rd in the country in adjusted tempo. While Hurley runs an unbelievable offensive system, he wants his players to run a ton of actions and play a half-court oriented game. That takes time.
Estimated Score: Florida 80.6, UConn 71
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
