Arkansas vs. St. John’s March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 10 vs. No. 2 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, the Arkansas Razorbacks face the St. John’s Red Storm in second-round action.
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How to Watch Arkansas vs. St. John’s
When: 2:40 pm ET on Saturday, March 22nd
Where: Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island
Watch: CBS
Odds for Arkansas vs. St. John’s
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: St. John’s -7.5 (-108), Arkansas +7.5 (-112)
Total: Over 144.5 (-115), Under 144.5 (-105)
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Arkansas vs. St. John’s Preview & Prediction
It’s always a little weird when a John Calipari-coached team heads into the NCAA Tournament with an underwhelming record, and that’s the situation in his first year with the Razorbacks. Arkansas was 20-13 before the start of March Madness, but that doesn’t exactly tell the story of the Razorbacks you’re going to see against Rick Pitino’s Red Storm. Arkansas dealt with a lot earlier in the season, including some injuries to key players. But the Hogs got hot down the stretch, winning five of their final seven games. Arkansas also had some big wins during the regular season, including victories over tournament teams like Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Texas and Michigan.
The Razorbacks also showed that they’re ready for tournament play with a 79-72 win as 5-point underdogs against a solid Kansas team in the first round of the dance. That said, this is a highly talented Arkansas team that is clicking at the right time, which could spell danger for a St. John’s team that won the Big East but definitely has some issues.
A lot of people have futures on the Red Storm this year, as it’s easy to root for Pitino and the terrific rebuild he did in New York. But it’s hard to feel confident in St. John’s winning, or covering, against Arkansas.
Arkansas is 20th in Bart Torvik’s defensive efficiency rankings. This is a good defensive team that works hard at defending around the basket, ranking 74th in the nation in 2P% defense. The Razorbacks are also decent when it comes to defending the 3-point line, ranking 84th in the nation in 3PT% defense. But realistically, you don’t have to be good to keep St. John’s from knocking down triples. St. John’s is shooting just 30.8% from 3 this season, and the team is also 342nd in the nation in 3-point rate (31.1%). And ultimately, that’s why the Red Storm feel extremely beatable.
Pitino’s team keeps finding ways to get across the finish line, and that’s what great teams do. However, when you run an old-school offense and rely on your defense, it’s hard to consistently win games. That’s even truer at this time of year. It’s going to be tough for St. John’s to grind out win after win against the best teams in the nation, even if this is arguably the best defensive team in the country.
The reality is that the Razorbacks are also superb defensively, so neither team is likely to get torched by the other. But which team has the more talented offensive players? That would be Arkansas. RJ Luis Jr. is a great scorer for St. John’s, but Arkansas has more collective firepower in Johnell Davis, D.J. Wagner and Boogie Fland. And Tennessee transfer Jonas Aidoo has looked awesome playing the role of an injured Adou Thiero. That just meansan even better Hogs team with Thiero set to return.
If this is going to be a slugfest in which things are extremely tight late, it’s hard to pass up on the team with the better offensive players — especially with that team getting 7.5 points.
However, it should be noted that these teams might be better offensively than they are defensively, but that doesn’t mean this will be a game that goes Under. St. John’s might not be all that good on the offensive end, but the team is actually 52nd in the nation in adjusted tempo, and Arkansas is 67th in that regard. Neither one of these teams wants to slow things down too much. That could be part of the reason this total was bet up from 140.5 to 144.5.
Estimated Score: St. John’s 76, Arkansas 70
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
