North Carolina vs. Ole Miss March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 11 vs. No. 6 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the North Carolina Tar Heels face the Ole Miss Rebels in first-round action.
Make VSiN your home for the duration of the NCAA Tournament and beyond. Take advantage of our college basketball betting tools and previews and predictions on every single March Madness game. We have College Basketball Betting Splits from DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa Sports, updated Vegas College Basketball Odds, College Basketball Odds from other states, College Basketball Matchup Data, and more.
Check out Greg Peterson’s Daily College Basketball Lines, Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings Lines, and look at College Basketball Picks from our VSiN Experts.
How to Watch North Carolina vs. Ole Miss
When: 4:05 p.m. ET on Friday, March 21st
Where: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Watch: TNT
Odds for North Carolina vs. Ole Miss
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: North Carolina -1.5 (-112), Ole Miss +1.5 (-108)
Total: Over 154.5 (-112), Under 154.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | North Carolina vs. Ole Miss Matchup Page
North Carolina vs. Ole Miss Preview & Prediction
Throughout North Carolina’s 95-68 beatdown of Ole Miss in the First Four, all I could hear was Eddie Cahill, playing Jim Craig in Miracle, saying, “Fine! I’ll take your test. Is that what you want?”
For days, we have debated whether the Tar Heels deserved a spot in the field. North Carolina’s season-long results left a lot to be desired heading into Selection Sunday. But the Tar Heels have had moments this season in which they have shown they can play with tournament-caliber teams, and beating the Aztecs to a pulp means we can stop talking about the resume. We now need to discuss whether North Carolina can do some damage over the next couple of days. The oddsmakers clearly think the Tar Heels can, as they’re favored over the Rebels in the Round of 64.
It’s a little interesting to see UNC favored in this game. Ole Miss is currently 26th in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, 28th in Bart Torvik’s and 28th in our VSiN Power Ratings. North Carolina is 33rd in KenPom’s rankings, 36th in Torvik’s and 33rd in ours. That said, it feels like we’re either seeing an overreaction to the Tar Heels’ win over the Aztecs, or the oddsmakers are making the public pay a bit of a tax for backing one of the biggest brands in basketball. Either way, there could be some value in looking to the Rebels side here.
For starters, Ole Miss is a top-25 team when it comes to defensive efficiency at KenPom. Torvik and EvanMiya also have strong defensive numbers for the Rebels. Look for Chris Beard’s team to put some real ball pressure on North Carolina’s guards, looking to test the team’s legs after the trip from Dayton to Milwaukee — and playing more games than usual towards the end of last week. If the Rebels can effectively do that, they’ll force the Heels into some bad shots later in the clock. And while RJ Davis is definitely a great shot-maker for this North Carolina team, how many other players can be trusted to score against good defense?
The Rebels could also look better than advertised offensively in this matchup. A lot of experts view Ole Miss as a defensive-minded team, but this was a top-35 group in offensive efficiency all year. And the Rebels had that type of profile despite playing in the loaded SEC. So, against a Tar Heels team that is outside the Top 50 in defensive efficiency, we might see a great offensive performance from Ole Miss.
If one thing’s certain, it’s that the Rebels will at least value every possession and give its deep group of contributors some chances to score. Ole Miss has the third-best turnover rate (12.8%) in college basketball this year, and North Carolina is just 306th in turnover rate defense (15.2%).
You also have to wonder if North Carolina is due for some serious shooting regression here. The Heels shot 30 for 57 from the floor and 14 for 24 from 3 against a good defensive team on Tuesday. This is a good North Carolina offense, but is the team good enough to light up another good defense?
You can also shrug off the Tar Heels’ 1-12 record against Quadrant 1 opponents all you want, but the losses happened and you can’t take them away. And do you know what’s happening in this one? UNC is facing an Ole Miss team that is ranked 28th in the NET rankings, and the matchup is happening on a neutral court. That makes this a game that would qualify as the type of win that eluded Hubert Davis’ team all season long.
It should probably also be mentioned that Beard has been a pretty good coach in March. He went all the way to the finals of this tournament with Texas Tech, and he’s just now starting to bring in the type of talent he needs to win in Oxford. I say all of that to say that this could be a coaching matchup that strongly favors the Rebels. Davis hasn’t impressed in his time running the operation in Chapel Hill.
Having said all of that, I understand that it could be a little scary taking a side here. We don’t know which version of these teams we’re going to see at Fiserv Forum. But what about the total? It has already been bet up from 152.5 to 154.5, so there’s clearly some sharp money on the Over. Maybe it’s worth following the money.
Estimated Score: Coming soon
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
