San Diego State vs. North Carolina March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 11 vs. No. 11 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the San Diego State Aztecs face the North Carolina Tar Heels in First Four action.
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How to Watch San Diego State vs. North Carolina
When: 9:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 18th
Where: UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Watch: truTV
Odds for San Diego State vs. North Carolina
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: North Carolina -4.5 (-105), San Diego State +4.5 (-115)
Total: Over 142.5 (-110), Under 142.5 (-110)
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San Diego State vs. North Carolina Preview & Prediction
Two contrasting styles will collide in Dayton as North Carolina faces San Diego State in the First Four. The Tar Heels, despite an underwhelming season, found their way into the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year. UNC struggled against top-tier opponents, going 0-10 in Quadrant 1-A games, but their dominance against lesser competition (21-1 against Quadrant 2 or lower teams) was enough to secure a bid, along with their “quality losses”.
Offensively, North Carolina is a well-rounded team, ranking in the top 20 for adjusted offensive efficiency, with solid shooting from both inside and beyond the arc. However, their defense has been a weak point all year, ranking outside the top 100 in effective field goal percentage defense, which has led to struggles against more talented teams. With losses to Stanford, Wake Forest, Pitt, and a few to rival Duke, UNC must prove they belong in the field as they face a formidable defensive challenge from San Diego State.
San Diego State, on the other hand, enters the tournament with a defensive identity but major questions on offense. This is the Aztecs’ fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, but their offensive struggles have been a consistent theme. They’re one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking in the top 15 for both KenPom and Bart Torvik in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, their offense is lacking, ranking outside the top 100 in several key categories.
While San Diego State’s offense is pedestrian at best, their defense keeps them in games, and they’ve been successful in close contests, posting an 8-2 record in games decided by six or fewer points. Their biggest win of the season came against Houston, the No. 3 overall seed, but they’ve also had a few disappointing losses, including a quick exit in the Mountain West Tournament.
This matchup in Dayton will be a pace war. If the Tar Heels can avoid turnovers and hit enough shots, they should advance. However, San Diego State’s defense is tough to crack, and if the Aztecs can slow the game down and capitalize on UNC’s defensive weaknesses, they could pull off the win. A victory means a trip to Milwaukee to face Mississippi.
Estimated Score: North Carolina 73, San Diego State 70
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