Texas vs. Xavier March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 11 vs. No. 11 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Texas Longhorns face the Xavier Musketeers in First Four action.
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How to Watch Texas vs. Xavier
When: 9:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 19th
Where: UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Watch: truTV
Odds for Texas vs. Xavier
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Xavier -2.5 (-115), Texas +2.5 (-105)
Total: Over 149.5 (-110), Under 149.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Xavier vs. Texas Matchup Page
Texas vs. Xavier Preview & Prediction
Texas and Xavier both find themselves in Dayton, battling for a spot in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Despite finishing 6-12 in SEC play, Texas barely made the field, thanks in part to an overtime win over Texas A&M. The Longhorns struggled against top-tier competition, going 3-8 against Quadrant 1-A teams and 7-10 overall in Quadrant 1 matchups. A late-season slide saw them lose seven of nine before picking up two SEC Tournament wins.
Rodney Terry’s squad is talented but inconsistent. Offensively, they take care of the ball and shoot well from deep, ranking as a top-40 unit in adjusted efficiency. However, their defense, while physical, is prone to fouling and doesn’t force many turnovers. Terry led Texas to a second-round appearance last season, but this year’s team isn’t as highly regarded. Facing Xavier in what will feel like a road game won’t make things any easier.
Xavier enters with an underwhelming 1-9 record against Quadrant 1 opponents but finished the regular season on a seven-game winning streak to keep their tournament hopes alive. They nearly pulled off a Big East Tournament upset over Marquette before falling in a dramatic finish. The Musketeers’ biggest strength is their shooting—they rank in the top 10 nationally in 3P% at nearly 39%.
Defensively, Xavier is solid but unspectacular. They rank as a top-40 unit in adjusted efficiency but struggle in key areas, sitting in the 180s in 3P% defense and 160s in 2P% defense. However, they do well on the defensive glass and avoid fouling. Historically, Xavier thrives in March—winning at least one tournament game in their last five appearances, including an Elite Eight run as a No. 11 seed in 2017.
Early betting action has favored Xavier, which isn’t surprising given Texas’s inconsistency. The winner faces Illinois making this a high-stakes battle in Dayton.
Estimated Score: Xavier 75, Texas 74
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
