UC San Diego vs. Michigan March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 12 vs. No. 5 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the UC San Diego Tritons face the Michigan Wolverines in first-round action.
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How to Watch UC San Diego vs. Michigan
When: 10:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 20th
Where: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
Watch: TBS
Odds for UC San Diego vs. Michigan
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Michigan -3.5 (-110), UC San Diego +3.5 (-110)
Total: Over 140.5 (-110), Under 140.5 (-110)
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UC San Diego vs. Michigan Preview & Prediction
The 2025 NCAA Tournament’s South Region features an intriguing 5-12 matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the UC San Diego Tritons. This contest pits a resurgent Big Ten power against a rising mid-major making its Division I tournament debut.
Michigan enters the tournament riding high after capturing the Big Ten Tournament title. First-year head coach Dusty May has quickly turned the program around, tying the school record for wins by a first-year coach. The Wolverines boast a superb frontcourt duo in 7-footers Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, who lead the team in scoring and rebounding, respectively. Michigan’s interior presence has helped them rank in the top 10 nationally in 2-point field goal percentage.
However, the Wolverines have shown vulnerability in ball security, with a turnover percentage exceeding 20% during the regular season. This weakness could prove costly against a UC San Diego team that excels at forcing turnovers. Michigan’s penchant for close games – winning 13 contests by six points or fewer – suggests they’re battle-tested but also potentially susceptible to upset. And this will be one of the trendiest upset picks of the tournament.
UC San Diego makes its NCAA Tournament debut in its first year of eligibility after transitioning from Division II. The Tritons, led by coach Eric Olen, secured the Big West’s automatic bid with a convincing 75-61 victory over UC Irvine in the conference championship game. UCSD’s success is no fluke, as evidenced by their top-40 ranking in KenPom’s analytics.
The Tritons’ strengths lie in their exceptional ball control and defensive prowess. They rank in the top five nationally in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage, giving them a significant advantage in possession battles. UCSD also boasts efficient 2-point shooting on offense while stifling opponents inside the arc defensively.
This matchup presents a classic contrast of styles. Michigan will look to leverage its size advantage with Goldin and Wolf, potentially dominating the glass against a smaller UCSD squad. The Tritons, meanwhile, will aim to disrupt Michigan’s offense with their pressure defense and ability to capitalize on turnovers. UCSD’s high volume of 3-point attempts (nearly 50% of their shots) could be a key factor, especially at Denver’s elevation.
As the dreaded 12-5 matchup, this game has all the ingredients for a potential upset. UC San Diego’s ball-hawking defense could exploit Michigan’s turnover issues, while the Tritons’ 3-point shooting prowess fits the classic Cinderella mold. However, Michigan’s tournament experience, interior dominance, and recent momentum will have Wolverines fans and backers feeling good about any matchup.
Estimated Score: Michigan 72.8, UC San Diego 70.3
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
