Omaha vs. St. John’s March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 15 vs. No. 2 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, the Omaha Mavericks face the St. John’s Red Storm in first-round action.
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How to Watch Omaha vs. St. John’s
When: 9:45 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 20th
Where: Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island
Watch: CBS
Odds for Omaha vs. St. John’s
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: St. John’s -18.5 (-110), Omaha +18.5 (-110)
Total: Over 147.5 (-110), Under 147.5 (-110)
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Omaha vs. St. John’s Preview & Prediction
St. John’s enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament after being one of the biggest snubs last year. Head coach Rick Pitino’s squad has certainly earned their place with a strong 18-2 Big East regular-season record and an elite defense that ranks in the top five nationally for adjusted defensive efficiency. They force turnovers at a high rate, defend the rim well, and are solid at limiting 3-pointers. Their defense, especially on the perimeter and at the basket, will be the greatest weapon in the Big Dance for the Big East Tournament champs.
However, the Red Storm’s offense leaves much to be desired. They struggle significantly from beyond the arc, shooting just over 30% from 3-point range, one of the worst marks in the field. Their 2-point shooting is slightly better, but still underwhelming. Despite these shortcomings, St. John’s has found a way to compete offensively by capitalizing on second-chance opportunities and extra possessions thanks to their strong offensive rebounding. If they’re going to make any noise in the tournament, they’ll need to rely on this defensive intensity and hope their offense can heat up, especially against tough teams like Texas Tech if they meet in the Sweet 16. Still, it’s hard to imagine their shot-making woes won’t catch up with them at some point, possibly ending their run sooner than they hope.
Omaha, on the other hand, is one of the most fun stories of the 2025 tournament. After a 4-9 start to the season, the Mavericks embraced their “trash can” tradition, with a rallying cry that has now captured the hearts of fans everywhere. This fun-loving team, led by third-year head coach Chris Crutchfield, locked up their first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance by winning the Summit League, a remarkable achievement for a program that had just one winning season since 2017.
However, despite the feel-good story, Omaha faces a monumental challenge in the first round. While they’re a solid offensive team with strong shooters. Marquel Sutton averages 19 points and eight rebounds per game, while JJ White and Tony Osburn are shooting over 40% from 3.
Their defense is a major liability, though. Ranking near the bottom in both 3-point and 2-point defense, the Mavericks have shown little ability to slow down high-quality opponents. Their 0-7 record against Quadrant 1 or 2 teams and losses to the likes of Akron and Iowa State don’t inspire much confidence. St. John’s defense and rebounding are likely to overwhelm Omaha in the opener, though the Mavericks’ ability to shoot the 3 could make things interesting from a spread standpoint, especially if they catch fire.
Estimated Score: St. John’s 83, Omaha 65
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