Alabama State vs. Saint Francis March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 16 vs. No. 16 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the Alabama State Hornets face the Saint Francis Red Flash in First Four action.
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How to Watch Alabama State vs. Saint Francis
When: 6:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 18th
Where: UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Watch: truTV
Odds for Alabama State vs. Saint Francis
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Alabama State -3.5 (-115), Saint Francis +3.5 (-105)
Total: Over 141.5 (-110), Under 141.5 (-110)
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Alabama State vs. Saint Francis Matchup Page
Alabama State vs. Saint Francis Preview & Prediction
Saint Francis and Alabama State will meet in the NCAA Tournament’s First Four, with both teams aiming to prove their worth after long absences from the Big Dance. For Saint Francis, this marks their first tournament appearance since 1991, and the Red Flash earned their trip by navigating a gritty Northeast Conference Tournament. They won their final three games in overtime and a series of tight battles, including a 46-43 upset over Central Connecticut State in the NEC final.
Despite ranking among the bottom of Division I in several key metrics, including turnovers and free throw rate, Saint Francis made it this far with solid interior offense, finishing second in the NEC for adjusted offensive efficiency and leading the conference in 2-point percentage at nearly 56%. However, their lack of height and consistent rebounding could prove problematic against more athletic teams, and they are facing a tough challenge in Dayton against Alabama State.
Alabama State is in the tournament for the first time since 2011 after a SWAC Tournament run, where they won three games by a combined 11 points. Head coach Tony Madlock has built the program from the ground up, improving the Hornets’ win total year after year to get to this point. Alabama State’s defense was fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency in the SWAC, and they possess one of the top turnover percentages in the nation. However, their offense remains a concern, particularly their struggles with shooting, especially from 2-point range, where they are among the worst in the nation.
The matchup between Saint Francis and Alabama State will come down to turnovers and rebounding. Saint Francis struggles with ball protection, ranking in the 320s for turnover percentage, while Alabama State thrives at forcing turnovers, ranking in the top 100 nationally in that category. The Hornets’ defensive pressure should give them an edge, especially given the Red Flash’s inability to take care of the ball and their lack of size inside. Though both teams have their flaws, Alabama State appears to have the upper hand in this matchup and should advance to lose to Auburn in the next round.
Estimated Score: Alabama State 73, Saint Francis 70
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