American vs. Mount St. Mary’s March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 16 vs. No. 16 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, the American Eagles face the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers in First Four action.
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How to Watch American vs. Mount St. Mary’s
When: 6:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 19th
Where: UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Watch: truTV
Odds for American vs. Mount St. Mary’s
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: American -2.5 (-112), Mount St. Mary’s +2.5 (-108)
Total: Over 131.5 (-110), Under 131.5 (-110)
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American vs. Mount St. Mary’s Preview & Prediction
American and Mount St. Mary’s will face off in Dayton for a chance to keep their NCAA Tournament dreams alive. American enters this game having secured their first NCAA Tournament berth since 2014, claiming the Patriot League title with a hard-fought victory over Navy. The Eagles were fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency in their conference, but stronger on defense, ranking second in adjusted defensive efficiency. As a team that loves to shoot from beyond the arc, American has taken nearly 45% of their shots from 3-point range, converting at a solid 35%. The Eagles play at one of the slowest paces in the country, which could make for a methodical, low-possession game in Dayton.
Mount St. Mary’s, on the other hand, arrives in the tournament with a dose of March magic, having rallied through the MAAC Tournament without two of their top players, Carmelo Pacheco and Terrell Ard Jr., both lost due to injury. The Mountaineers’ defense has been their backbone, stifling opponents to just 58, 55, and 49 points in their three conference tournament wins. They finished seventh in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency, but locked down in the conference tournament by playing at a very slow pace. In Atlantic City, they played three games with possession totals of 65, 59, and 64, well below their season average. This defensive-minded approach, combined with their ability to limit turnovers, helped them secure the conference’s lone bid to the Big Dance.
Both teams have clear strengths but also glaring weaknesses. American’s reliance on the 3-point shot and slow tempo could make for a low-scoring affair, and Mount St. Mary’s will try to continue their suffocating defense without two key players. Either way, it’s sure to be a tightly contested matchup, and the winner will lose against Duke in the first round.
Estimated Score: American 67, Mount St. Mary’s 65
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