Clemson vs. Alabama March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 6 vs. No. 4 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, the Clemson Tigers face the Alabama Crimson Tide in Elite Eight action.
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How to Watch Clemson vs. Alabama
When: 8:49 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 30th
Where: crpyto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA
Watch: TBS
Odds for Clemson vs. Alabama
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Alabama -3.5
Total: 164
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Clemson vs. Alabama Matchup
West Region No. 6 Clemson Tigers
Clemson wasn’t anything special during the regular season, but this team has proven be a tough out. The Tigers are a borderline top-25 team when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency, and they’re solid on the defensive end. That starts with center PJ Hall, who sets the tone for Clemson on both ends of the floor. He’s a good pick-and-pop center that can score around the basket, and he’s relatively creative with the ball in his hands. Hall is also a very good defensive big, and his motor is contagious for the Tigers. The team also has him paired with a tough forward in Ian Schieffelin, and the guard play isn’t bad either. In fact, Syracuse transfer Joseph Girard III is a big shot maker and is capable of getting hot from deep.
West Region No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
Nate Oats is still the head coach of the Crimson Tide, so they naturally have a top-five offense in college basketball. Alabama plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation, and the team launches a ton of 3s — and drills them at a high clip. Mark Sears has been as good as any guard in the country this year, and he’s a player that people could fall in love with in the tournament. The issue with Alabama is that the defense is an absolute nightmare. The Tide don’t even crack the nation’s top 100 on that end of the floor. So, they’ll be vulnerable if exposed to a team that can get the job done on both offensively and defensively, but it hasn’t happened yet and they’re still alive.
Clemson vs. Alabama Preview & Prediction
Sometimes the NCAA Tournament is simply about playing your best basketball at the right time. The Clemson Tigers were bounced immediately from the ACC Tournament by a pedestrian Boston College team. Three wins later, they are in the Elite Eight for the first time since 1980. Much-maligned head coach Brad Brownell was 11 years old back then. Now, he’ll lead the Tigers into a matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide, which sounds more like something Dabo Swinney would be doing.
The Tide were struggling, especially on the defensive end coming into the NCAA Tournament, but here they are after outlasting North Carolina in an instant classic in the Sweet 16 with an 89-87 win. It was a dramatic W for Alabama, who makes an Elite Eight appearance for the first time since 2004. The Tide did what they do best when they win games and that means simply outscore the opposition in a shootout.
Brownell was quick to point out that Arizona missed some open looks in the 77-72 win, maybe to keep his team grounded, maybe because he’s just an honest guy. The Wildcats were just 19-of-32 on shots at the rim. Clemson will need a similar defensive effort down low against Alabama, as the Tide rank in the top 50 in percentage of shots defined as “Close Twos” by Bart Torvik.
The other key to this game will be Clemson’s continued success defensively against 3s. The three opponents Clemson has faced – New Mexico, Baylor, and Arizona – have combined to go just 14-of-75 (18.7%) from long distance. You’ll win a lot of games like that.
However, Alabama was 11-of-26 in the win over the Tar Heels and ranks in the top 20 in 3P% for the season. They also bomb away from deep, as over 46% of their shot attempts have been triple tries. In some respects, that creates a bit of a high-variance game. In other respects, regression has to come for Clemson soon, right?
On the other hand, Clemson draws an Alabama defense that ranks in the 190s in 2P% and the Tigers have converted defense into offense with a 55.7% success rate on 2-pointers here in the tournament. Sounds like points might be in the forecast again here.
Estimated Score: Alabama 85, Clemson 81
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