The 2026-27 college basketball season begins in the region where Villanova’s most famous alumnus resides. Even though Pope Leo XIV is not expected to attend, Notre Dame vs. Villanova is the opening game of the campaign live and direct from Palazzo dello Sport in Rome, Italy, ironically, on All Saints Day. There is hope that the Pope will do a special, private service on Saturday for the teams and the fans that made the trip, but recent health issues and treatment could interfere with those plans.
Our College Basketball Betting Guide is the best way to get prepared for the season and will save you a lot of time trying to do research on the transfer portal and all the coaching changes because we’ve done that already. I’ll be doing at least one daily team vs. team preview, to go along with my daily best bets starting on Monday.
We also have Steve Makinen’s College Basketball Daily Matchup Ratings, and he has a huge discrepancy between the market and his numbers on this game.
Notre Dame vs. Villanova (-7.5, 147.5)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (FOX)
Based on the line, it is going to be tough for the Fighting Irish to open the season with a victory, but add in Pope Leo XIV and the support of a higher power and it could be an even greater struggle for Micah Shrewsberry’s team. It is his fourth year at the helm and we’ll see if it could be his last, as the Fighting Irish have not had a winning season on his watch and have gone just 19-39 in ACC play.
After a three-year absence, Kevin Willard got Villanova back to the Big Dance in his first season at the helm. The Wildcats were a No. 8 seed and got bounced right away by Utah State after a one-and-done in the Big East Tournament. So, it wasn’t really the ending that Willard was hoping for, but he does have something to build on.
Tyler Perkins (13.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Matt Hodge (9.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG) are the top returnees. Hodge missed the last four games of last season, but was a reliable shooting option on 2s (61.1%) and 3s (36.8%) in his first Division I season. Ohio State transfer Devin Royal can score off the bounce and big man Kwame Evans should replace the outstanding production of Duke Brennan down low. Brennan had 26 of Villanova’s 50 dunks and was a 66% shooter on 2-pointers, but transferred to Oklahoma after one season in Philly.
Last season, the Wildcats were 301st in the nation in FT% per Bart Torvik and 284th in FT Rate, so Willard’s team left some easy points on the floor and the chance to shoot more of those uncontested 1-pointers. Brennan was the main culprit, shooting just 61.3% on a team-leading 173 attempts. Freshman Acaden Lewis was a very inefficient, high-usage player, shooting just 27% on 3s and an abysmal 58.3% at the stripe. He transferred to Miami, which may very well be addition by subtraction, especially with Darryl Simmons II, a 42.4% 3-point guy and an 89.9% free throw shooter from St. Bonaventure, in the mix.
Villanova’s roster certainly seems to be in better shape than Notre Dame’s at the outset. Last season, Notre Dame began the season 10-4, including a 1-0 start in ACC play with a gritty 47-40 win at Stanford. As the season went along, the team got badly exposed on defense and failed to win consecutive conference games. Not even qualifying for the ACC Tournament was a major stain on the program.
It obviously didn’t work with what Shrewsberry had last season, particularly on defense, as opponents shot nearly 62% at the rim and better than 42% in the mid-range. I’m not sure that those issues have been addressed. He is banking on 6-foot-10 Winthrop transfer Logan Duncomb to provide more rim resistance and also the development of 6-foot-10 returnee Brady Koehler, who will have a heavier workload after playing just 38.1% of the minutes last season.
Shrewsberry prioritized guards and wings in the portal, picking up Ethan Roberts (38.3%) from Penn, Devin Brown (31%) from Davidson, and new point guard Braeden Smith from Gonzaga. His son, Braeden, shot 40.2% from 3 and just 36% on 2s while being a defensive liability, but he played over 80% of the minutes last season and will have a similar or higher workload again.
Notre Dame vs. Villanova Prediction
Obviously this is a very strange game in Italy to open the season, but the Wildcats clearly look to be the better team and Willard is the more accomplished coach. This could be a big number for Villanova depending on the pace of the game, as Willard’s Wildcats were 302nd in adjusted tempo per Torvik and the Fighting Irish were 252nd after ranking 313th and 334th in Shrewsberry’s first two seasons. With all the emotions and excitement surrounding this game, I see a quicker pace, which benefits Villanova.
Pick: Villanova -7.5
