Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 8 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 8 best bets:
Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Buffalo Bills
No one expected the Baltimore Ravens to be sitting in last place in the AFC North, but that is where they are. However, they are getting Lamar Jackson back after missing three games with a high ankle sprain. No one should be more excited to have Lamar back than Derrick Henry, who has had his two lowest rushing outputs (17 carries, 56 yards at Cleveland; 17 carries, 45 yards vs. Cincinnati) in the last two games. That is barely over three yards per carry.. However, if there was ever a time for a struggling offense to get right, it is against this Bills defense.
Buffalo is off its bye. Josh Allen is the rightful MVP favorite. He has to be, because his defense ranks dead last in EPA, 30th in Success Rate, 29th in EPA/Pass, 31st in Pass Success Rate, and 25th in EPA/Rush. Only four teams (Washington, Detroit, Las Vegas, and Arizona) have allowed more TD passes than the Buffalo defense.
The Bills offense is certainly explosive – No. 1 in scoring (32.8 ppg) and No. 1 in EPA – but the one game where it struggled was against the Chargers. In that game, Buffalo scored 24 (a late one tacked on with the Chargers giving them a short field late) but allowed four sacks and turned it over five times. The Chargers run essentially the same scheme as the Ravens with Jesse Minter, who was Chargers DC, now as the Baltimore head coach.
Jackson is 9-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog of three points or less. This is a huge game for the Ravens to keep pace in its own division.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Lions moved up to -3.5 last week and did not end up covering vs. the Packers in a 20-17 victory but were the clear better side. Detroit had a 26-to-17 first-down edge, a 415-to-324 yard edge, and forced Jordan Love to drop back 46 times.
Meanwhile, Minnesota moved on to 6-0 and is now the NFL’s lone remaining unbeaten team. However, they were not sharp in a 16-10 victory over an Indianapolis team that is starting to sell anything that is not bolted down. The Vikings defense is still elite with its 69% blitz rate that has led to being No. 1 in EPA/Play and No. 1 in Success Rate. On the other hand, the offense continues to struggle as it ranks No. 29 in EPA/Play and No. 31 in Success Rate.
Although Detroit can be prone to giving up big plays, Minnesota has not shown the ability to take advantage even against weaker defenses like Miami and Indianapolis.
Minnesota also has had some kicking game issues as Will Reichard missed two field goals last week.
A 6-0 team can never be called a bad team, but the Vikings have been on borrowed time, and eventually this defense will have to break, and Jared Goff has been the best starter per EPA against the blitz this season. If Detroit gets out to a lead, Minnesota will struggle to play catch up.
Los Angeles Chargers +6.5 at Los Angeles Rams
The Chargers officially became the last winless team last week with Miami’s win over the Jets. If ever there was a team that needed a bye week, it was the Chargers.
The Bolts are the first team since the 2011 Rams to go winless ATS through six games and score under 24 pts in each of those games. The offense ranks dead last in points per game, EPA/play, and Success Rate. Justin Herbert ranks 34th among the 34 quarterbacks to have 100 or more dropbacks with a 44.5 grade per PFF.
Perhaps the week off allowed them to regroup and do some soul searching. One would expect that the Chargers would at least come out with a solid effort here.
On the other side, the Rams stopped a losing streak with a 35-21 victory in Las Vegas after losing two straight games. Now the schedule eases up a bit with the Chargers and then road games at Washington and Arizona before the Week 11 bye.
Although it was a win, the Rams caught the Raiders on the back end of a brutal stretch of the schedule, having to play Kansas City, New England, and Buffalo in back-to-back-to-back weeks. The Rams are not suddenly the elite team they were projected to be before the season began. They have issues, especially stopping the run, and they are just 28th in Success Rate. The Chargers are also expected to have tackle Joe Alt back to help their banged-up offensive line.
Sometimes I am as guilty as anyone reading too much into a line, but this has stayed at 6.5 all week and was actually 7 on the lookahead number. Who is cutting in line to bet the Chargers? Things that make you go Hmmm.
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Browns/Steelers Under 39.5
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Broncos +7.5/Patriots -1 (6-point teaser)
BEST OF THE REST
Buccaneers -126 ML vs. Falcons
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